905 Lcr 311 · Lake Colorado City, TX 79512

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 0.60 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR AN INEXPENSIVE PLACE ON THE LAKE? THIS HOME NEEDS A LITTLE TLC BUT HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL. ON THE WATER WITH A DOCK AND A BOAT RAMP! NICE AND QUIET PART OF THE LAKE! 3rd bedroom does not have a closet but the armoire can stay if needed

Key facts

• Dock
• On the water
• Boat ramp

Tags

• ON THE WATER
• DOCK
• BOAT RAMP
• QUIET PART OF THE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#782 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Westbrook ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,141 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Mitchell County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $32,264
• Equity at exit: $63,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $92,108
• Equity at exit: $105,958

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79512

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $120,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    LOOKING FOR AN INEXPENSIVE PLACE ON THE LAKE? THIS HOME NEEDS A LITTLE TLC BUT HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL. ON THE WATER WITH A DOCK AND A BOAT RAMP! NICE AND QUIET PART OF THE LAKE! 3rd bedroom does not have a closet but the armoire can stay if needed

17. 2025-12-06
    price $130,000
18. 2025-09-19
    price $129,500
19. 2025-08-11
    price $135,000
20. 2025-04-25
    price $138,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$62
• After-tax cash flow: $1,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, but has potential for significant value increase.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Siding appears worn
• Major landscaping — Needs significant improvement

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Both landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve kitchen functionality and aesthetics
• Both update bathrooms — Updated bathrooms enhance overall home value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Siding appears worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · Needs significant improvement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both update bathrooms — Updated bathrooms enhance overall home value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westbrook ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845210
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,806
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #6658
• State rank: #429 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Lake Colorado City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #14249

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Colorado City, TX
• City population: 7,672
• Population (ZIP): 7,672

Population outlook (Mitchell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,476 people
• By 2030: 8,723 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 9,046 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 9,200 · +8.5%
• By 2075: 8,936 · +5.4%
• By 2100: 7,978 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 20% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mitchell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.3) · D 14.0% · R 85.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.5pp · 2024: -71.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.3 2020: R+68.8 2016: R+65.2 2012: R+52.7 2008: R+50.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 99.8822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $120,000 PBBOR
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $130,000 PBBOR
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $129,500 PBBOR
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $135,000 PBBOR
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $138,950 PBBOR