102 Lariat Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$66,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1987 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has been lovingly cared for by one owner. 1987 SCHT TL There are two separate applications your client would need to submit. One with Williams Estates & one with Peppermint Woods to get qualified for the ground rent which is $1,090.00 a month. Contact the park's office, [phone], to get the exact ground rent number, the park application, or any other questions you may have regarding the ground rent. This is a 3 br, 2 bath mobile home in Williams Estates. Large kitchen, separate dining room with built in cabinets, a large living room, a Champion Room Addition off Living Room. Primary bedroom has large full bath and walk in closet Roof 2015, Stove 2017 disposal 2018, Kitchen Floor 2021, replaced 6 windows 2020, replaced HVAC 2023,

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Large kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• BUILT IN CABINETS
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• CHAMPION ROOM ADDITION
• PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.2% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $67k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $64,893 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.32%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $69,166
• Equity at exit: $9,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $150,527
• Equity at exit: $5,784

Cash invested: $18,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,004/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $66,900

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,725
• Closing costs: $2,007
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
520 Holly Hunt Rd Middle River, MD	4.0	3.0	1508	$2,300	$1.53	43d	1	0.94mi
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,052	$2.21	1d	8	1.01mi
11550 Crossroads Cir Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,849	$3.19	1d	15	1.11mi
3924 Cutty Sark Rd Middle River, MD	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,699	$1.44	23d	1	1.17mi
6221 Greenleigh Ave Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,957	$2.79	1d	16	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $66,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $66,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $66,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $66,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-04-09
   listed $66,900 Active 761-char remark

   Show marketing remark (761 chars)

   This home has been lovingly cared for by one owner. 1987 SCHT TL There are two separate applications your client would need to submit. One with Williams Estates & one with Peppermint Woods to get qualified for the ground rent which is $1,090.00 a month. Contact the park's office, [phone], to get the exact ground rent number, the park application, or any other questions you may have regarding the ground rent. This is a 3 br, 2 bath mobile home in Williams Estates. Large kitchen, separate dining room with built in cabinets, a large living room, a Champion Room Addition off Living Room. Primary bedroom has large full bath and walk in closet Roof 2015, Stove 2017 disposal 2018, Kitchen Floor 2021, replaced 6 windows 2020, replaced HVAC 2023,

6. 2011-05-27
   soldstatus $24,900 Sold 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Very well maintained, and updated home, located in Williams Estates with a sunny Florida Room/porch, for added space, deck and well maintained yard with shed. Off Street Parking. Seller has found home of choice. Close to all major route, Park approval Required. Call for your tour today.

7. 2011-05-27
   soldstatus $24,900

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Very well maintained, and updated home, located in Williams Estates with a sunny Florida Room/porch, for added space, deck and well maintained yard with shed. Off Street Parking. Seller has found home of choice. Close to all major route, Park approval Required. Call for your tour today.

8. 2011-04-26
   status Contract 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Very well maintained, and updated home, located in Williams Estates with a sunny Florida Room/porch, for added space, deck and well maintained yard with shed. Off Street Parking. Seller has found home of choice. Close to all major route, Park approval Required. Call for your tour today.

9. 2011-04-25
   historical
10. 2011-01-21
    listed $24,900 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Very well maintained, and updated home, located in Williams Estates with a sunny Florida Room/porch, for added space, deck and well maintained yard with shed. Off Street Parking. Seller has found home of choice. Close to all major route, Park approval Required. Call for your tour today.

11. 2011-01-20
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,004
• − Insurance: −$334
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$1,946
• Taxable income: $15,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,807
• After-tax cash flow: $12,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+168.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $66,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-27 Sold (MLS) $24,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-27 Sold (MLS) $24,900 MRIS
• 2011-04-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-04-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-01-21 Listed $24,900 MRIS
• 2011-01-20 Listed $24,900 BRIGHT MLS