160 Hope Ln · Hayfork, CA 96076

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This picturesque 8.02ac property is a tranquil mountain paradise waiting to be resurrected. Several years of vacancy means that nature has started to reclaim the double-wide mobile home but it still has good bones! Whether you plan to fix it up or haul it out, nothing changes Babbling Hayfork Creek just a stonesthrow away. There is an outbuilding / carport / garage building for added storage or hobbies. Nice and flat 1-2 acres down around the home next to the creek, then an additional 6 acres leads up the hill to more flat and usable space on another level, accessible from Hall City Creek Re. A well serves the property, as well as a private septic. The home was once heated by a large propane forced air type unit that is likely no longer operational. Hayfork Creek has steelhead, trout, and the potential for gold, platinum and even diamonds. .. all in your front yard.

Key facts

• Private septic
• Flat usable space
• Garage

Tags

• BABBLING HAYFORK CREEK
• OUTBUILDING CARPORT GARAGE
• FLAT USABLE SPACE
• PRIVATE SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.0% in Hayfork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#677 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Valley Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #788 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.85%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $53,475
• Equity at exit: $35,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $129,002
• Equity at exit: $55,436

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96076

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $697

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $80,000 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    This picturesque 8.02ac property is a tranquil mountain paradise waiting to be resurrected. Several years of vacancy means that nature has started to reclaim the double-wide mobile home but it still has good bones! Whether you plan to fix it up or haul it out, nothing changes Babbling Hayfork Creek just a stonesthrow away. There is an outbuilding / carport / garage building for added storage or hobbies. Nice and flat 1-2 acres down around the home next to the creek, then an additional 6 acres leads up the hill to more flat and usable space on another level, accessible from Hall City Creek Re. A well serves the property, as well as a private septic. The home was once heated by a large propane forced air type unit that is likely no longer operational. Hayfork Creek has steelhead, trout, and the potential for gold, platinum and even diamonds. .. all in your front yard.

18. 2026-01-06
    price $90,000 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    This picturesque 8.02ac property is a tranquil mountain paradise waiting to be resurrected. Several years of vacancy means that nature has started to reclaim the double-wide mobile home but it still has good bones! Whether you plan to fix it up or haul it out, nothing changes Babbling Hayfork Creek just a stonesthrow away. There is an outbuilding / carport / garage building for added storage or hobbies. Nice and flat 1-2 acres down around the home next to the creek, then an additional 6 acres leads up the hill to more flat and usable space on another level, accessible from Hall City Creek Re. A well serves the property, as well as a private septic. The home was once heated by a large propane forced air type unit that is likely no longer operational. Hayfork Creek has steelhead, trout, and the potential for gold, platinum and even diamonds. .. all in your front yard.

19. 2025-12-09
    listed $95,000 Active 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    This picturesque 8.02ac property is a tranquil mountain paradise waiting to be resurrected. Several years of vacancy means that nature has started to reclaim the double-wide mobile home but it still has good bones! Whether you plan to fix it up or haul it out, nothing changes Babbling Hayfork Creek just a stonesthrow away. There is an outbuilding / carport / garage building for added storage or hobbies. Nice and flat 1-2 acres down around the home next to the creek, then an additional 6 acres leads up the hill to more flat and usable space on another level, accessible from Hall City Creek Re. A well serves the property, as well as a private septic. The home was once heated by a large propane forced air type unit that is likely no longer operational. Hayfork Creek has steelhead, trout, and the potential for gold, platinum and even diamonds. .. all in your front yard.

20. 2004-12-08
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 49 unhealthy d/yr today · 52 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $6,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600018
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,254
• Composite: 35.23/100
• National rank: #9851
• State rank: #788 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayfork

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #20786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,413
• Population (ZIP): 140

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Native American 12% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% Iranian 4% Czech 3%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $80,000 Trinity AOR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $90,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $95,000 Trinity AOR
• 2004-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · -28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.