440 N Grogg St · Spring Lake, NC 28390

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1962 Est $166k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique style 3 bedroom/1 bath all brick home. Features; hardwood flooring in living room and 2 bedrooms. A separate den includes carpet and fireplace. Tile in the bathroom. Large fenced in back yard with covered patio and storage shed.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Separate den
• Covered patio

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• SEPARATE DEN
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Located in the SPRING LAKE subdivision
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Storage; Covered patio; Storm doors; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Propane heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Interior storage; Window coverings and blinds; Masonry fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.5% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#543 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,033 of 1,410 statewide, top 76%, 271 students, 99% FRL); Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 55% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,362
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1512 Crescent Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,382 (-1%)	7mo	$164,770	$119	84
1611 Crescent Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-0%)	21mo	$150,000	$108	70
506 Spring Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+2%)	4mo	$210,000	$147	52
1320 Kingstown Ct	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,562 (+12%)	9mo	$55,000	$35	43
1228 Spring Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-11%)	18mo	$87,000	$70	42
639 Chapel Hill Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-13%)	12mo	$190,000	$156	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $988
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $32,632
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28390

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,363/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,073

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $306	+0% $273	+5% $241	+10% $208
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $217	+0% $273	+5% $329	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $303	base $273	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Morrison Ave Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	24d	1	0.08mi
1306 King St Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.0	968	$1,047	$1.08	24d	1	0.13mi
1000 Riverbank Dr Spring Lake, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$1,440	$1.34	15d	9	0.26mi
201 Stonebriar Cir Spring Lake, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$1,875	$1.63	15d	25	0.53mi
502 Spring Ave Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.72mi
501 Weaver St #4 Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	24d	1	0.76mi
206 S Seventh St Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.77mi
110 Bruce Ln Spring Lake, NC	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	15d	1	1.12mi
207 Duncan Rd Spring Lake, NC	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,600	$1.11	15d	1	1.17mi
801 Shell Dr Spring Lake, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$2,025	$1.69	15d	41	1.25mi
204 McKenzie Rd Spring Lake, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,390	$1.42	15d	17	1.33mi
310 Elizabeth St Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.5	940	$1,197	$1.27	24d	2	1.41mi
424 Tolbert Ct Spring Lake, NC	2.0	2.0	980	$1,147	$1.17	24d	2	1.43mi
1403 Mack St Spring Lake, NC	3.0	1.5	1144	$1,400	$1.22	24d	1	1.43mi
421 Tolbert Ct Spring Lake, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,147	$1.15	24d	1	1.44mi
503 Warfield St Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.5	920	$1,197	$1.30	24d	1	1.46mi
505 Warfield St Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.5	960	$1,197	$1.25	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $115,000 Pending 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $115,000 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-04-17
   status Active
9. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-16
    price $115,000
11. 2026-03-03
    price $123,000
12. 2026-02-02
    price $125,000
13. 2025-10-09
    listed $135,000 Active
14. 2024-10-09
    historical $1,100
15. 2024-09-24
    listed $1,100
16. 2023-11-18
    historical $1,100
17. 2023-10-23
    price $1,100
18. 2023-10-21
    listed $850
19. 2023-09-26
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2011-03-16
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,363
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #19811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Lake, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,000
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $62,972
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.43%
• Current HPI: 207.9349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $115,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $123,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $125,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $135,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-10-09 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-24 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-18 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-23 Price Changed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-21 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,363 · +68.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.