3 Apple Ln · Manchester, NJ 08759

$219,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1981 Good condition 5,662 sqft lot Garage $184/sqft · 11% below area Est $246k · 11% under $175/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the desirable 55+ Active adult community of Crestwood 7 in Whiting. This lovely Newbury model. Featuring kitchen with full appliance package, Living Room, Dining Room, and sunken Family Room with sliders to back patio The two spacious bedrooms offer large closets providing plenty of storage. Enjoy the convenience of a one car attached garage. Enjoy all the amenities and activities provided in this vibrant community and make this house your home!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Manchester — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 145d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $219k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,922 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,060
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -11.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
87 Chelsea Dr #72	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	0mo	$245,000	$206	89
47 Hartford Rd	0.21mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$243,000	$204	87
13 Orchard Dr #73	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,192 (0%)	4mo	$150,000	$126	87
49 Chelsea Dr #73	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	4mo	$283,000	$237	84
28 Norwalk Avenue Sec 70 Ave	0.34mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	2mo	$275,000	$231	80
20 Hummingbird Ln #73	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	3mo	$299,000	$267	80
20 Hummingbird Ln	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	3mo	$299,000	$267	80
55 Chelsea Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	2mo	$269,000	$240	79
14 S Chestnut Ave	0.40mi	2/2.5	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$193,000	$162	75
6 Orchard Dr	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$280,000	$250	74
74 Chelsea Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,312 (+10%)	3mo	$249,900	$190	71
18 S Chestnut Ave #70	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$247,700	$221	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-45,317
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-51,738
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,000 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $196,358

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-81	+0% $-156	+5% $-232	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-233	+0% $-156	+5% $-80	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-101	base $-156	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	130d	1	0.66mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	184d	1	0.66mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	144d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present; monthly fee of $175Community clubhouseHOA fee includes trash and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownershipModel: NEWBURY
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $219,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $219,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $219,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $219,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $219,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $219,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $219,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $219,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $219,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $219,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $219,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $219,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $219,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $219,000 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $219,000 Active 102 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    pricedays on market $219,000 Active 101 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $224,000 Active 100 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $224,000 Active 99 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $224,000 Active 98 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $224,000 Active 97 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $224,000 Active 96 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $224,000 Active 95 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $224,000 Active 94 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $224,000 Active 93 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $224,000 Active 92 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $224,000 Active 91 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $224,000 Active 90 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $224,000 Active 89 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 88 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $224,000 Active 87 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $224,000 Active 86 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $224,000 Active 85 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 84 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 83 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 82 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $224,000 Active 81 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $224,000 Active 80 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $224,000 Active 79 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $224,000 Active 78 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $224,000 Active 77 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $224,000 Active 76 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $224,000 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $224,000 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $224,000 Active 73 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $224,000 Active 72 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $224,000 Active 71 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $224,000 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$5,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $-541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,960–$17,880 screening

This home is in good condition with a good rehab level, requiring minor repairs and maintenance. Updates to the kitchen and painting the interior walls can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated cabinetry
• Minor kitchen backsplash — orange walls

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in a home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present; monthly fee of $175Community clubhouseHOA fee includes trash and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownershipModel: NEWBURY
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

Price history

+260.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $229,000 MOMLS
• 2014-05-20 Sold (MLS) $99,900 MOMLS
• 2014-04-10 Listed $99,900 MOMLS
• 2013-10-06 Listed $107,000 MOMLS
• 2013-08-23 Sold (MLS) $54,000 MOMLS
• 2013-05-30 Listed $63,500 MOMLS