3 Apple Ln · Manchester, NJ 08759

$229,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1981 Good condition 5,662 sqft lot Garage $192/sqft · 6% below area Est $244k · 6% under $175/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the desirable 55+ Active adult community of Crestwood 7 in Whiting. This lovely Newbury model. Featuring kitchen with full appliance package, Living Room, Dining Room, and sunken Family Room with sliders to back patio The two spacious bedrooms offer large closets providing plenty of storage. Enjoy the convenience of a one car attached garage. Enjoy all the amenities and activities provided in this vibrant community and make this house your home!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $229k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,922 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,136
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -6.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Berry Hill Rd #72	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	2mo	$214,000	$180	93
13 Orchard Dr #73	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,192 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$126	90
69 Chelsea Dr	0.18mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	2mo	$281,900	$236	88
49 Chelsea Dr #73	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,192 (0%)	0mo	$283,000	$237	86
20 Hummingbird Ln #73	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	0mo	$299,000	$267	82
20 Hummingbird Ln	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	0mo	$299,000	$267	82
19 Attleboro La Sec 73	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$238,394	$213	78
29 Brentwood St #73	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$248,000	$221	77
74 Chelsea Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,312 (+10%)	0mo	$249,900	$190	74
23 Chelsea Dr #70	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$252,500	$225	69
25 Churchill	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$262,000	$234	57
36 Westport Dr #71	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$245,050	$219	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-51,339
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-62,649
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.7 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,000 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 40 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $196,358

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-146	+0% $-226	+5% $-305	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-302	+0% $-226	+5% $-149	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-167	base $-226	+0.5pp $-285	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	38d	1	0.66mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	93d	1	0.66mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	53d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present; monthly fee of $175Community clubhouseHOA fee includes trash and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownershipModel: NEWBURY
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   status Active 460-char remark
7. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 460-char remark
8. 2026-04-20
   listed $229,000 Active 460-char remark
9. 2014-05-20
   soldstatus $99,900
10. 2014-04-10
    listed $99,900
11. 2013-10-06
    listed $107,000
12. 2013-08-23
    soldstatus $54,000
13. 2013-05-30
    listed $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$6,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,960–$17,880 screening

This home is in good condition with a good rehab level, requiring minor repairs and maintenance. Updates to the kitchen and painting the interior walls can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated cabinetry
• Minor kitchen backsplash — orange walls

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in a home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• City population: 34,290
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present; monthly fee of $175Community clubhouseHOA fee includes trash and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownershipModel: NEWBURY
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

Price history

+260.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $229,000 MOMLS
• 2014-05-20 Sold (MLS) $99,900 MOMLS
• 2014-04-10 Listed $99,900 MOMLS
• 2013-10-06 Listed $107,000 MOMLS
• 2013-08-23 Sold (MLS) $54,000 MOMLS
• 2013-05-30 Listed $63,500 MOMLS