500 Summer Ln · Southold, NY 11971

$1,400,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $632/sqft · 10% above area Est $1269k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The classic North Fork lifestyle you have been waiting for has finally arrived. Nestled in a quiet Southold neighborhood, 500 Summer Lane offers the rare opportunity to create a retreat just moments from the beaches, vineyards, and beloved local destinations that define the North Fork. Here, tranquility meets convenience—you’re never far from the shoreline or the vibrant heartbeat of the community. Buyers can choose from two options to own this New Construction property: Option 1: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $650,000 This offering includes fully approved architectural plans and Health Department approvals to build a 4-bedroom, 3-bath new construction home on the quiet 0.25-acre parcel at 500 Summer Lane. Purchase the lot as-is and use your preferred builder to break ground on your own schedule. At 500 Summer Lane, you’re less than 1.5 miles from some of Southold’s best gems like Croteaux Vineyard, Goose Creek Beach, Sophie’s Restaurant, and local farm/flower stands. A little further you’ll find the charming Southold Town, Cedar Beach, endless vineyards, Greenport Harbor Brewery, and so much more! Option 2: New Construction Package – $1,400,000 In partnership with respected local builder, this option delivers a thoughtfully designed 2,215 sq ft home that blends timeless details with coastal luxury. Plans include 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths with 9 foot ceilings throughout, creating an airy and elegant space. The first floor of the home features an open-concept kitchen, living, and dining perfect for hosting and easy flow of day-to-day living. Walk up the front porch and enter the front door to a spacious living room accompanied by a warm fireplace for those cooler nights. As you continue you’ll pass through the dining area with floor-to-ceiling doors that look out over the backyard. Enter the brand-new chef’s kitchen featuring a large kitchen island, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful walk-in pantry! The main floor also features a full bath and bedroom, perfect for guests or single-floor living. Upstairs, you’ll find 3 additional bedrooms — 2 that share the full bath in the hall, and a primary bedroom with walk-in-closet and en suite bathroom. Laundry is a breeze with a washer-dryer on the second floor! Outdoors, you’ll appreciate the intentional details designed with North Fork living in mind. The detached garage features a beautifully integrated pool cabana, accessed by a man door. Designed to suit outdoor entertaining and living, the cabana comes equipped with an island bar top, sink, half bath, and space for a grill — the perfect spot to entertain or wind down after a day at the beach with family or guests. The North Fork is Calling Your Name!

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Open-concept kitchen
• 0.25-acre parcel

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION PROPERTY
• HEALTH DEPARTMENT APPROVALS
• 0.25-ACRE PARCEL
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.23M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $407k; list at $1.40M implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,232,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.10%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,268,695
• List price: $1,400,000
• Delta: 10.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Pine Ave	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,280 (+3%)	10mo	$1,205,000	$529	74
355 Cedar Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,230 (+1%)	23mo	$920,000	$413	62
605 aka 565 Cedar Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,911 (-14%)	12mo	$950,000	$497	57
9875 Main Bayview Rd	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-10%)	7mo	$950,000	$475	56
800 Goose Creek Ln	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-8%)	7mo	$1,250,000	$615	50
1100 Beachwood Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-10%)	21mo	$1,807,250	$904	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $45,104
• Equity at exit: $208,745

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $387,715
• Equity at exit: $121,046

Cash invested: $392,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,342
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,950/yr
• Insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,332
• Net cashflow: $4,280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,448

Max offer price $1,400,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $350,000
• Closing costs: $42,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1160 Goose Creek Ln Southold, NY	5.0	3.0	2000	$50,000	$25.00	43d	1	0.47mi
110 Sleepy Hollow Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$25,000	$8.62	43d	1	0.76mi
215 Northfield Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$13,000	$5.65	18d	1	0.78mi
1265 Brigantine Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$9,000	$5.14	43d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,400,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,400,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,400,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,400,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,400,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,400,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-01-18
    listed $1,400,000 Active 2802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2802 chars)

    The classic North Fork lifestyle you have been waiting for has finally arrived. Nestled in a quiet Southold neighborhood, 500 Summer Lane offers the rare opportunity to create a retreat just moments from the beaches, vineyards, and beloved local destinations that define the North Fork. Here, tranquility meets convenience—you’re never far from the shoreline or the vibrant heartbeat of the community. Buyers can choose from two options to own this New Construction property: Option 1: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $650,000 This offering includes fully approved architectural plans and Health Department approvals to build a 4-bedroom, 3-bath new construction home on the quiet 0.25-acre parcel at 500 Summer Lane. Purchase the lot as-is and use your preferred builder to break ground on your own schedule. At 500 Summer Lane, you’re less than 1.5 miles from some of Southold’s best gems like Croteaux Vineyard, Goose Creek Beach, Sophie’s Restaurant, and local farm/flower stands. A little further you’ll find the charming Southold Town, Cedar Beach, endless vineyards, Greenport Harbor Brewery, and so much more! Option 2: New Construction Package – $1,400,000 In partnership with respected local builder, this option delivers a thoughtfully designed 2,215 sq ft home that blends timeless details with coastal luxury. Plans include 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths with 9 foot ceilings throughout, creating an airy and elegant space. The first floor of the home features an open-concept kitchen, living, and dining perfect for hosting and easy flow of day-to-day living. Walk up the front porch and enter the front door to a spacious living room accompanied by a warm fireplace for those cooler nights. As you continue you’ll pass through the dining area with floor-to-ceiling doors that look out over the backyard. Enter the brand-new chef’s kitchen featuring a large kitchen island, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful walk-in pantry! The main floor also features a full bath and bedroom, perfect for guests or single-floor living. Upstairs, you’ll find 3 additional bedrooms — 2 that share the full bath in the hall, and a primary bedroom with walk-in-closet and en suite bathroom. Laundry is a breeze with a washer-dryer on the second floor! Outdoors, you’ll appreciate the intentional details designed with North Fork living in mind. The detached garage features a beautifully integrated pool cabana, accessed by a man door. Designed to suit outdoor entertaining and living, the cabana comes equipped with an island bar top, sink, half bath, and space for a grill — the perfect spot to entertain or wind down after a day at the beach with family or guests. The North Fork is Calling Your Name!

16. 2025-11-12
    soldstatus $407,000 Closed 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Property with vast potential in Prime location, close to Southold beaches, vineyards and short drive to town. Manufactured Home from the early 70's in disrepair, separate one car garage and shed., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

17. 2024-11-07
    status Pending 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Property with vast potential in Prime location, close to Southold beaches, vineyards and short drive to town. Manufactured Home from the early 70's in disrepair, separate one car garage and shed., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2024-08-03
    price $469,000 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Property with vast potential in Prime location, close to Southold beaches, vineyards and short drive to town. Manufactured Home from the early 70's in disrepair, separate one car garage and shed., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

19. 2024-07-12
    listed $489,000 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Property with vast potential in Prime location, close to Southold beaches, vineyards and short drive to town. Manufactured Home from the early 70's in disrepair, separate one car garage and shed., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

20. 2024-06-28
    historical $489,000 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Property with vast potential in Prime location, close to Southold beaches, vineyards and short drive to town. Manufactured Home from the early 70's in disrepair, separate one car garage and shed., Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,950 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,805 · $1,150/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,855/yr (+$821/mo · 249.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $190,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,422
• − Property taxes: −$3,950
• − Insurance: −$7,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,232
• − Management: −$15,232
• − Depreciation: −$40,727
• Taxable income: $29,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,160
• After-tax cash flow: $44,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+186.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-18 Listed $1,400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Sold (MLS) $407,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-03 Price Changed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Listed $489,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Coming Soon $489,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,950 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.