2933 Ivy Lake Ct · Lakeland, FL 33811

$375,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2022 5,497 sqft lot $107/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Spacious and thoughtfully designed Hayden floor plan by D. R. Horton offering over 2,600 sq ft, 5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage in a growing Lakeland location. This two-story home features all concrete block construction on both floors and a versatile open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The first floor includes a flex space perfect for a home office or formal dining, along with a guest bedroom and full bath, ideal for visitors or multi-generational living. The kitchen is the heart of the home, showcasing a large center island, walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and abundant cabinetry, all overlooking the spac

Key facts

• Large center island
• Flex space
• Backyard water view

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FLEX SPACE
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BACKYARD WATER VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground and pool; Monthly HOA fee approximately $107 (association: Artemis Lifestyles/Christie Prince); Association fee includes pool and recreational facilities; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Irrigation system
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Completed construction; Southeast-facing
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (Hayden model)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Sliding doors; Storage; Gazebo; Sidewalks; Vinyl fencing; Mature landscaping with trees; Landscaped yard; Cleared lot; Conservation area nearby; Paved access (public maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stone countertops; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room on upper level; Water softener; Electric water heater; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jesse Keen Elementary School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 649 students, 67% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,753 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-87,930
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-133,945
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,138/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,365

Max offer price $323,783

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2796 Grandbury Grove Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$3,295	$1.76	11d	1	0.21mi
3227 Bayou Bay Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,600	$1.39	3d	1	0.27mi
2127 Blue Highlands Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,275	$1.22	23d	1	0.44mi
3370 Cup Dr Unit 16 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,975	$1.62	3d	1	1.21mi
3442 Cup Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,975	$1.63	3d	1	1.24mi
3460 Cup Dr Unit 01 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,864	$1.56	10d	1	1.25mi
3372 Turnberry Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	2472	$4,000	$1.62	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $375,000
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $389,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,138 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,138 · $428/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,138
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,878
• − Management: −$2,878
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $389,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+77.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,138 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.