515 S Avenue R · Post, TX 79356

$99,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,763 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1957 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking in Post, TX! This 4 bed, 2 bath home on two lots is packed with potential! Featuring major updates with Peach of Mind including solid foundation, replaced plumbing, and water heater. This home is the perfect rare-find project for an invest or buyer ready to build equity fast. Don't wait; act fast!

Key facts

• Water heater
• Solid foundation
• Replaced plumbing

Tags

• SOLID FOUNDATION
• REPLACED PLUMBING
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Post ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #545 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Garza County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Garza County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $15,836
• Equity at exit: $40,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $50,797
• Equity at exit: $58,927

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79356

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,628/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $154	+0% $126	+5% $97	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $80	+0% $126	+5% $171	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $151	base $126	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-30
   listed $99,999 Active 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking in Post, TX! This 4 bed, 2 bath home on two lots is packed with potential! Featuring major updates with Peach of Mind including solid foundation, replaced plumbing, and water heater. This home is the perfect rare-find project for an invest or buyer ready to build equity fast. Don't wait; act fast!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,628 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,628 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,628
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,107
• − Management: −$1,107
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$18
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Post ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835490
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,804
• Composite: 28.81/100
• National rank: #6661
• State rank: #545 of 826 in TX

Livability — Post

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Post, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,362

Population outlook (Garza County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,497 people
• By 2030: 6,615 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 6,551 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 6,734 · +3.6%
• By 2075: 6,642 · +2.2%
• By 2100: 5,430 · -16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garza

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.3% · R 85.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+71.5 2016: R+67.7 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Current HPI: 101.9858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $99,999 LARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,628 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.