50022 M-40 · Paw Paw, MI 49079

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

19 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

Key facts

• 19 acres
• Riverfront living
• 19.08 acre lot

Tags

• 19 ACRES
• 700 FT OF RIVER FRONTAGE
• SOUTH BRANCH PAW PAW RIVER
• OPEN AND WOODED AREAS
• RIVERFRONT LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Paw Paw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#193 in MI, #4,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Paw Paw Public School District (town): math 34% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #145 of 540 in MI (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $115,000 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,480
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50022 M-40	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,444 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$83	99
51765 Easy St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,432 (-1%)	0mo	$315,000	$220	77
35268 51st Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-11%)	2mo	$205,000	$160	64
52700 Ackley Ter	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (+5%)	8mo	$260,000	$172	44
35399 Margurite Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+10%)	6mo	$270,000	$170	42
35473 Margurite Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,640 (+14%)	7mo	$229,000	$140	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,833
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,003
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49079

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $217	+0% $183	+5% $149	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $138	+0% $183	+5% $228	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $214	base $183	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
915 E Main St Unit 917-9 Paw Paw, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	14d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

2. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

3. 2026-04-25
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

4. 2026-04-24
   listed $120,000 Active 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

5. 2026-04-24
   listed $120,000 Active 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

6. 2026-04-24
   listed $120,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

7. 2026-04-24
   historical

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

8. 2026-04-24
   historical

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Investor Special - 19+ Acres with 700 Ft of River Frontage on the South Branch Paw Paw RiverOpportunity awaits on this unique parcel featuring just over 19 scenic acres with approximately 700 feet of frontage along the beautiful South Branch Paw Paw River. Tucked away in a peaceful setting just outside of town -- yet only minutes from local shops, schools, and conveniences -- this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The existing 3-bedroom, 1-bath home requires significant repairs and updates and is being valued primarily for the land. With vision and effort, the structure could be restored -- or start fresh and build your dream home overlooking the property. The expansive acreage provides a mix of open and wooded areas, ideal for recreation, hunting, fishing or simply enjoying the privacy and abundant wildlife that riverfront living provides. With approximately 700 feet of river frontage, there's ample opportunity for kayaking, fishing, and relaxing along

9. 2026-03-26
   price $154,900
10. 2026-03-25
    price $154,900
11. 2026-03-25
    price $154,900
12. 2026-03-12
    price $165,000
13. 2026-03-12
    price $165,000
14. 2026-03-12
    price $165,000
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $184,900 Active
16. 2026-02-24
    listed $184,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 116.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$54
• After-tax cash flow: $2,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paw Paw Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2627660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,358
• Composite: 38.56/100
• National rank: #4170
• State rank: #145 of 540 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #4928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,364

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.46%
• Current HPI: 164.7191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-35.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $154,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $154,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $154,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $165,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $184,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $184,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · -79.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.