4000 Ace Ln #325 · Lewisville, TX 75067

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2001 $50/sqft · 9% above area Est $73k · at est. ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION! PRICED TO SELL! Beautifully remodeled mobile home located in a clean friendly community. This home can be moved or leased in its current community, giving you flexible options. Home Features: 3 bedrooms / 2 bathrooms Spacious master suite with double closets & double vanity Relaxing jacuzzi tub + standard bathtub Cozy fireplace Completely remodeled interior & exterior Fresh paint throughout Updated kitchen with modern finishes Brand new carpet & flooring Central A/C and furnace 10x8 storage shed in the backyard Community amenities if you decide to stay in the community and rent the lot space: Swimming pool Fitness center Tennis court Soccer field This is a fantastic opportunity to own a move-in ready home in a great location with excellent amenities. Don’t miss out—schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Tennis court
• Swimming pool

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STORAGE SHED
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lewisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 214 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.62%
• DSCR: 4.50
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,272
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -4.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4000 Ace Ln #97	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+11%)	8mo	$74,900	$48	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $65,887
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $144,766
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75067

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $316/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $1,284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,324	-5% $1,304	+0% $1,284	+5% $1,264	+10% $1,245
Rent	-10% $1,114	-5% $1,199	+0% $1,284	+5% $1,370	+10% $1,455
Rate	-1.0pp $1,319	-0.5pp $1,302	base $1,284	+0.5pp $1,266	+1.0pp $1,248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2118 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1066	$1,784	$1.67	0d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,524	$1.81	4d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2283 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,738	$1.96	44d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2287 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$1,791	$1.49	44d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$5,112	$4.95	11d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 3118 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,285	$1.66	0d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,307	$1.92	21d	1	0.57mi
940 W Round Grove Rd Lewisville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,230	$2.19	0d	50	0.61mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 3118 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,172	$1.58	0d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2118 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,994	$1.87	0d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2473 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,982	$1.86	44d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2469 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,753	$2.00	44d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,212	$1.61	4d	1	0.67mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,179	$1.56	44d	1	0.67mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$1,855	$1.55	2d	1	0.67mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$5,362	$5.19	11d	1	0.67mi
2400 Ace Ln Lewisville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$2,215	$2.75	4d	84	0.70mi
620 N Coppell Rd Coppell, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1291	$2,696	$2.09	2d	30	0.89mi
979 Mauve Dr Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,300	$1.46	0d	1	1.04mi
2479 Deer Run Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	15d	1	1.26mi
3800 Grapevine Mills Pkwy Grapevine, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1281	$2,609	$2.04	2d	45	1.44mi
332 W Corporate Dr Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,950	$1.74	11d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-04-23
   price $70,000 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   LOCATION! PRICED TO SELL! Beautifully remodeled mobile home located in a clean friendly community. This home can be moved or leased in its current community, giving you flexible options. Home Features: 3 bedrooms / 2 bathrooms Spacious master suite with double closets & double vanity Relaxing jacuzzi tub + standard bathtub Cozy fireplace Completely remodeled interior & exterior Fresh paint throughout Updated kitchen with modern finishes Brand new carpet & flooring Central A/C and furnace 10x8 storage shed in the backyard Community amenities if you decide to stay in the community and rent the lot space: Swimming pool Fitness center Tennis court Soccer field This is a fantastic opportunity to own a move-in ready home in a great location with excellent amenities. Don’t miss out—schedule a showing today!

4. 2026-04-13
   listed $76,000 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   LOCATION! PRICED TO SELL! Beautifully remodeled mobile home located in a clean friendly community. This home can be moved or leased in its current community, giving you flexible options. Home Features: 3 bedrooms / 2 bathrooms Spacious master suite with double closets & double vanity Relaxing jacuzzi tub + standard bathtub Cozy fireplace Completely remodeled interior & exterior Fresh paint throughout Updated kitchen with modern finishes Brand new carpet & flooring Central A/C and furnace 10x8 storage shed in the backyard Community amenities if you decide to stay in the community and rent the lot space: Swimming pool Fitness center Tennis court Soccer field This is a fantastic opportunity to own a move-in ready home in a great location with excellent amenities. Don’t miss out—schedule a showing today!

5. 2026-03-18
   historical
6. 2026-03-12
   price $79,999
7. 2026-03-02
   listed $84,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $316 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$965/yr (+$80/mo · 305.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$316
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $15,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,637
• After-tax cash flow: $11,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lewisville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #8991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisville, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 84,871
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,913
• Household income: $78,752
• Rent vs Own: 60.2% rent · 39.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3630.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 279.3299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $76,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $79,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $84,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $316 · -14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.