4630 Comal River Loop · Houston, TX 77386

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2005 7,013 sqft lot Est $286k · 30% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence balances comfort and style in a fantastic location. Step into a spacious living room filled with natural light, perfect for gatherings. The modern kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample counter space, adjacent to a dining area overlooking a lovely backyard, ideal for summer barbecues. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms are perfect for guests or a home office. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy and a safe space for children and pets, with a manicured lawn for outdoor entertaining. Located in a friendly neighborhood, this home is close to sch

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Lovely backyard
• Dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• DINING AREA
• LOVELY BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Real Manage/Cira Connect; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Tile roof; Built in 2005
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Open to family room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Separate shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Broadway El (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 1,351 students, 17% FRL); York J H (math 71% / reading 65%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 2,015 students, 22% FRL); Grand Oaks H S (math 61% / reading 74%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,533 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.41%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4623 Trinity River Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+1%)	2mo	$219,900	$137	79
29069 San Bernard River Loop	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,670 (+5%)	9mo	$265,000	$159	78
4630 Canadian River Ct	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+1%)	8mo	$290,000	$180	75
28827 Frio River Loop	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+1%)	9mo	$245,000	$152	73
28914 Trinity River Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (0%)	14mo	$290,000	$183	70
28902 Trinity River Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (0%)	16mo	$259,000	$163	69
4122 Pedernales River Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-9%)	1mo	$239,900	$165	64
4610 Nueces River Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-11%)	16mo	$260,000	$184	51
3702 Midway Gardens Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+10%)	13mo	$359,500	$206	48
29511 Water Willow Trace Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+14%)	1mo	$345,000	$191	47
28911 W Pecos River Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+13%)	9mo	$259,000	$145	47
29534 Whitebrush Trace Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,818 (+14%)	3mo	$340,000	$187	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,506
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,513
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77386

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,105/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,919

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $169	+0% $112	+5% $56	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $31	+0% $112	+5% $194	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $163	base $112	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4506 Nueces River Loop Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,601	$1.44	20d	1	0.26mi
30020 Creekside Terrace Dr Spring, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1045	$2,285	$2.19	0d	69	1.03mi
3543 Garrison Run Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,636	$1.17	26d	1	1.09mi
29635 Evergreen Hills Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,836	$1.28	0d	1	1.10mi
29726 Sullivan Oaks Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1410	$1,725	$1.22	45d	1	1.14mi
29735 Legends Green Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2180	$3,300	$1.51	26d	1	1.25mi
3506 Cactus Creek Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,950	$0.97	45d	1	1.29mi
29311 Legends Hill Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,901	$1.08	0d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $281,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,105 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,105 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,105
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$444
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,980
• Household income: $132,469
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1115.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.74%
• Current HPI: 226.3729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $281,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,105 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.