509 Depot Ave · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$390,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2021 5,100 sqft lot $265/sqft · 12% below area Est $444k · 12% under $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Manageable lot
• Walk-in closet
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MANAGEABLE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $367k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.8% in Keenesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $366,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,611
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: -12.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 Porter Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+0%)	6mo	$386,000	$262	92
310 Evans Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+0%)	2mo	$379,900	$258	84
401 Quincy Rr Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+0%)	11mo	$400,000	$272	84
310 Quincy Rr Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+0%)	4mo	$399,000	$271	81
215 N Stewart St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,472 (0%)	5mo	$384,900	$261	79
201 N Stewart St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,472 (0%)	4mo	$400,000	$272	78
516 Jordan St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	4mo	$405,000	$307	77
209 N Stewart St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+0%)	9mo	$400,000	$271	74
507 N Johnson St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	5mo	$395,000	$299	72
525 Porter Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+11%)	6mo	$394,900	$241	72
307 Thomas Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+11%)	3mo	$378,500	$231	66
180 N Cedar St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-11%)	6mo	$365,000	$279	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-23,890
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $29,663
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,160/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,178

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $390,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $399,000 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

15. 2026-05-13
    price $399,000 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

16. 2026-04-23
    price $400,000 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

17. 2026-04-23
    price $400,000 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $410,000 Active 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $410,000 Active 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Evans Place community of Keenesburg. Built in 2021, this home offers a modern open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and flows seamlessly into the spacious living and dining areas filled with natural light. A standout feature of this home is the premium whole-home water filtration system—something you don’t realize you need until you experience it—providing cleaner, better-quality water throughout the entire home. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home is the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value. Home to be sold with all kitchen appliances, as well as laundry washer, and dryer. Don't miss this opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

20. 2021-07-21
    soldstatus $365,900 Closed 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

21. 2021-07-21
    soldstatus $365,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

22. 2021-04-05
    status Pending 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

23. 2021-04-05
    price $365,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

24. 2021-03-09
    price $363,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

25. 2021-03-05
    listed $361,900 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

26. 2021-03-05
    listed $365,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Right off the foyer, a beautiful dining room welcomes you into this stunning home. The chef-ready kitchen is complete with energy-efficient whirlpool appliances and overlooks the spacious family room. In the kitchen, you will enjoy a sprawling kitchen stunning granite countertops, 36’ wood cabinets with crown molding and a convenient outlet with USB charging capabilities. The Arapaho also features a spacious master retreat with attached private bath and a large walk-in closet, The two additional bedrooms and full bathroom provide plenty of room for the whole family.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,160
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,802
• − Management: −$3,802
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $1,143
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$274
• After-tax cash flow: $7,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+10.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $399,000 IRES
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $399,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $400,000 IRES
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $400,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $410,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $410,000 IRES
• 2021-07-21 Sold (MLS) $365,900 IRES
• 2021-07-21 Sold (MLS) $365,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-05 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-05 Price Changed $365,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-09 Price Changed $363,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-05 Listed $365,900 IRES
• 2021-03-05 Listed $361,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+134.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,160 · -16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.