2509 Rembach · Bodfish, CA 93205

$158,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 341 Days on market

Built 1982 0.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Great home in small community with a beautiful view at the mountains of Bodfish. This home has 3 huge bedrooms, 2.5 baths, this property could be your vacation or retirement home!! It has freshly painted inside & out, Features deluxe new hardwood laminate floors, it has new custom kitchen cabinets with new gorgeous granite counter tops, 2 patios & 2 car garage, hookups for washer and dryer, Plenty of room for animals and mush more!!

Key facts

• 2 patios
• 0.59 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• NEW CUSTOM KITCHEN CABINETS
• 2 PATIOS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.9% in Bodfish — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,207 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $159k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 13→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,536
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
342 Rocky	0.57mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	3mo	$80,000	$104	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $89,484
• Equity at exit: $135,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $253,639
• Equity at exit: $284,132

Cash invested: $44,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93205

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $698/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $158,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $207	+0% $162	+5% $117	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $106	+0% $162	+5% $218	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $202	base $162	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,725
• Closing costs: $4,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2324 Bodfish Canyon Rd Bodfish, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,250	$1.20	3d	1	0.04mi
216 Kearns Dr Bodfish, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	3d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2025-12-22
   status Active
4. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-04
   price $158,900
6. 2025-10-31
   price $160,000
7. 2025-09-23
   price $170,000
8. 2025-08-14
   price $175,000
9. 2025-07-27
   historical
10. 2025-05-01
    listed $199,900 Active
11. 2024-10-30
    listed $195,000 Active
12. 2024-09-12
    status Active
13. 2024-08-25
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2024-08-23
    status Active
15. 2024-07-30
    status Active
16. 2024-07-20
    status Pending
17. 2024-05-23
    status Active
18. 2024-04-06
    price $195,000
19. 2023-11-22
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2022-12-02
    soldstatus $43,000 Closed
21. 2022-06-07
    listed $39,000
22. 1990-04-19
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$43/mo · 73.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 13 d/yr ≥91°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,901
• − Property taxes: −$698
• − Insurance: −$794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,360
• − Management: −$1,360
• − Depreciation: −$4,623
• Taxable loss: −$735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bodfish

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1207
• US rank: #26114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bodfish, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,191

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.33%
• Current HPI: 447.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+834.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2025-12-15 Pending — GEMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $158,900 GEMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $160,000 GEMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $170,000 GEMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $175,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $199,900 GEMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-12 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2024-08-25 Contingent — SSMLS
• 2024-08-23 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2024-07-30 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2024-07-20 Pending — SSMLS
• 2024-05-23 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2024-04-06 Price Changed $195,000 SSMLS
• 2023-11-22 Listed $199,000 SSMLS
• 2022-12-02 Sold (MLS) $43,000 SSMLS
• 2022-06-07 Listed $39,000 SSMLS
• 1990-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $698 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.