2509 Main St · Sylvan Beach, NY 13308

$157,500

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1939 7,500 sqft lot $107/sqft · 10% below area Est $175k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and versatile 5 bedroom home just a short walk from beautiful Oneida Lake! This well appointed property features a convenient first floor bedroom - perfect for guests or single level living - along with a bright living room and an inviting eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. Enjoy the ease of first floor laundry and two full bathrooms. Relax in the charming enclosed three season front porch or unwind in the rear enclosed three season porch overlooking the backyard. A covered rear patio provides the perfect spot for outdoor gatherings rain or shine. Being sold fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready and offers excellent potential as a short term rental or Airbnb investment. Whether you're looking for a year round residence, vacation getaway or income property, this home delivers comfort, flexibility and location all in one!

Key facts

• Covered rear patio
• First floor laundry
• Fully furnished

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• FULLY FURNISHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.3% in Sylvan Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,110 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Camden Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #504 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $158k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $152,775 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,965
• List price: $157,500
• Delta: -9.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2509 Main St	0.00mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$102	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $87,197
• Equity at exit: $141,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $256,098
• Equity at exit: $305,988

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13308

• Home prices YoY: 28.6%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,912/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 874-char remark

   Show marketing remark (874 chars)

   Spacious and versatile 5 bedroom home just a short walk from beautiful Oneida Lake! This well appointed property features a convenient first floor bedroom - perfect for guests or single level living - along with a bright living room and an inviting eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. Enjoy the ease of first floor laundry and two full bathrooms. Relax in the charming enclosed three season front porch or unwind in the rear enclosed three season porch overlooking the backyard. A covered rear patio provides the perfect spot for outdoor gatherings rain or shine. Being sold fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready and offers excellent potential as a short term rental or Airbnb investment. Whether you're looking for a year round residence, vacation getaway or income property, this home delivers comfort, flexibility and location all in one!

2. 2026-04-27
   price $157,500 874-char remark

   Show marketing remark (874 chars)

   Spacious and versatile 5 bedroom home just a short walk from beautiful Oneida Lake! This well appointed property features a convenient first floor bedroom - perfect for guests or single level living - along with a bright living room and an inviting eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. Enjoy the ease of first floor laundry and two full bathrooms. Relax in the charming enclosed three season front porch or unwind in the rear enclosed three season porch overlooking the backyard. A covered rear patio provides the perfect spot for outdoor gatherings rain or shine. Being sold fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready and offers excellent potential as a short term rental or Airbnb investment. Whether you're looking for a year round residence, vacation getaway or income property, this home delivers comfort, flexibility and location all in one!

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $189,900 Active 874-char remark

   Show marketing remark (874 chars)

   Spacious and versatile 5 bedroom home just a short walk from beautiful Oneida Lake! This well appointed property features a convenient first floor bedroom - perfect for guests or single level living - along with a bright living room and an inviting eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. Enjoy the ease of first floor laundry and two full bathrooms. Relax in the charming enclosed three season front porch or unwind in the rear enclosed three season porch overlooking the backyard. A covered rear patio provides the perfect spot for outdoor gatherings rain or shine. Being sold fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready and offers excellent potential as a short term rental or Airbnb investment. Whether you're looking for a year round residence, vacation getaway or income property, this home delivers comfort, flexibility and location all in one!

4. 2026-03-25
   historical
5. 2025-09-25
   listed $194,900 Active
6. 2000-12-18
   soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,912 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,912 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$4,912
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable loss: −$2,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$540
• After-tax cash flow: $778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606240
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,686
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5008
• State rank: #504 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sylvan Beach

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1110
• US rank: #22755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sylvan Beach, NY
• City population: 547
• Population (ZIP): 4,239

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 73.19%
• Current HPI: 329.3091
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $157,500 CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $194,900 CNYIS
• 2000-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,912 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.