2221 Wrangler Way · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$200,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 363 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2003 3,484 sqft lot $551/sqft · 102% above area Est $213k · 6% under $78/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to enjoy the ''cool summer'' in the White Mountains with this spacious, fully furnished 1bd/2ba in the coveted Pinecrest Lake community! Step into two large living rooms which offers some many possibilities, followed by a bright kitchen which features plentiful cabinets, countertops and storage. Features extra bathroom for added convenience. Central heat and A/C. Laundry inside. Exterior boasts a large, covered deck which is great for entertaining, and a storage shed for all your gear. Low HOA covers water, sewer, roads and community activities. Steps away is the Sitgreaves Nat'l Forest. Fiber internet is now available. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Covered deck
• Fiber internet

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOMS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• PLENTIFUL CABINETS
• COVERED DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• FIBER INTERNET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $200k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,612 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,133
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -6.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2212 Wrangler Way	0.05mi	1/1.0	386 (+6%)	11mo	$139,000	$360	74
2704 Stagecoach Blvd	0.19mi	1/1.0	401 (+10%)	18mo	$149,500	$373	55
2255 Old Crooks Trl	0.19mi	1/1.0	401 (+10%)	23mo	$145,000	$362	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-48,093
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,170
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,637

Max offer price $156,594

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternet

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $200,000 Active 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Great opportunity to enjoy the ''cool summer'' in the White Mountains with this spacious, fully furnished 1bd/2ba in the coveted Pinecrest Lake community! Step into two large living rooms which offers some many possibilities, followed by a bright kitchen which features plentiful cabinets, countertops and storage. Features extra bathroom for added convenience. Central heat and A/C. Laundry inside. Exterior boasts a large, covered deck which is great for entertaining, and a storage shed for all your gear. Low HOA covers water, sewer, roads and community activities. Steps away is the Sitgreaves Nat'l Forest. Fiber internet is now available. Schedule your private showing today!

18. 2016-07-07
    soldstatus $85,500 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    This is one of the best homes in Pinecrest Lakes, featuring a full, double-wide Cavco home which has been maintained in excellent condition; filled with built-in, upgraded cabinetry; ceiling fans; tastefully decorated; laundry; expansive, covered deck; storage building with a freezer; central A/C; beautiful landscaping, with well-established trees. Come take a look at this awesome retreat. You will not be disappointed!

19. 2016-07-07
    soldstatus $85,500

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    This is one of the best homes in Pinecrest Lakes, featuring a full, double-wide Cavco home which has been maintained in excellent condition; filled with built-in, upgraded cabinetry; ceiling fans; tastefully decorated; laundry; expansive, covered deck; storage building with a freezer; central A/C; beautiful landscaping, with well-established trees. Come take a look at this awesome retreat. You will not be disappointed!

20. 2016-07-07
    soldstatus $85,500

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    This is one of the best homes in Pinecrest Lakes, featuring a full, double-wide Cavco home which has been maintained in excellent condition; filled with built-in, upgraded cabinetry; ceiling fans; tastefully decorated; laundry; expansive, covered deck; storage building with a freezer; central A/C; beautiful landscaping, with well-established trees. Come take a look at this awesome retreat. You will not be disappointed!

21. 2016-07-07
    soldstatus $85,500

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    This is one of the best homes in Pinecrest Lakes, featuring a full, double-wide Cavco home which has been maintained in excellent condition; filled with built-in, upgraded cabinetry; ceiling fans; tastefully decorated; laundry; expansive, covered deck; storage building with a freezer; central A/C; beautiful landscaping, with well-established trees. Come take a look at this awesome retreat. You will not be disappointed!

22. 2016-05-14
    listed $89,900
23. 2016-03-31
    listed $89,900
24. 2015-11-30
    historical
25. 2015-08-26
    listed $89,900
26. 2006-08-31
    soldstatus $103,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $998 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+94.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $200,000 WMMLS
• 2016-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 2016-07-07 Sold (MLS) $85,500 CAAR
• 2016-07-07 Sold (MLS) $85,500 ARMLS
• 2016-07-07 Sold (MLS) $85,500 WMMLS
• 2016-05-14 Listed $89,900 CAAR
• 2016-03-31 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2015-11-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-08-26 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $998 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.