904 48th St · Niceville, FL 32578

$200,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,308 sqft · Townhouse · 162 Days on market

Built 1982 Fair condition 1,742 sqft lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For sale by owner 2br 1.5ba townhouse in niceville walking distance from college and children's park. Buyer pays all closing fees . Small back yard with privacy fence. Large attack for storage inside bedroom closet upstairs and under stairs as well. .stainless steel appliances in kitchen (fridge, flat top stove, microwave, dishwasher) large living area hardwood flooring downstairs carpet on stairs and in bedrooms

Key facts

• Built 1982
• Listed 162 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-493/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,751 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,405
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 3.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 48th St #3	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,308 (0%)	1mo	$241,900	$185	99
1501 N Partin Dr Apt 159	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-4%)	15mo	$242,500	$194	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,977
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-57,305
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32578

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $194,050

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $28	+0% $-41	+5% $-110	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-108	+0% $-41	+5% $26	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $10	base $-41	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 Palm Blvd N Unit C Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,400	$1.59	14d	1	0.01mi
Hickory Ave Niceville, FL	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,475	$1.43	44d	1	0.27mi
1145 46th St Unit B Niceville, FL	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,695	$1.38	44d	1	0.31mi
1018 Alderwood Way Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,700	$1.57	14d	1	0.40mi
133 3rd St Unit B Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	915	$1,425	$1.56	44d	1	0.73mi
1038 37th St Niceville, FL	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,100	$1.20	22d	1	0.77mi
203 John Sims Pkwy Unit F Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	44d	1	1.27mi
561 Bayshore Dr Unit 1 Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-01-07
    listed $200,000 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    For sale by owner 2br 1.5ba townhouse in niceville walking distance from college and children's park. Buyer pays all closing fees . Small back yard with privacy fence. Large attack for storage inside bedroom closet upstairs and under stairs as well. .stainless steel appliances in kitchen (fridge, flat top stove, microwave, dishwasher) large living area hardwood flooring downstairs carpet on stairs and in bedrooms

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This townhouse requires moderate renovations, focusing on painting and siding repairs, to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Moderate Siding — Some wear visible on exterior siding

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint job — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Siding repair — Repairing siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded and needs touch-up	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Some wear visible on exterior siding	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint job — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Siding repair — Repairing siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Niceville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #2207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niceville, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,738
• Household income: $108,972
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.87%
• Current HPI: 498.41
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $200,000 ForSaleByOwner.com