BUCHANAN Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Buchanan offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath-with one bedroom available as an optional study. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen-featuring a center island and corner pantry-overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area, providing access to an optional covered patio. Completing the home, a lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath.

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Inviting kitchen
• Spacious great room

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• INVITING KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT AREA
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,654.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,654
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -11.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26247 Venus Trap Trl	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+0%)	1mo	$289,900	$173	90
25302 Benroe St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+1%)	19mo	$299,995	$177	61
4614 Dunston Manor St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	17mo	$309,995	$185	60
25514 Reign Wayman Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-5%)	2mo	$280,000	$176	58
25307 Ashbourne Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+6%)	13mo	$299,995	$169	56
25419 Benroe St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+1%)	15mo	$282,763	$167	50
5023 Yellow Rays Trl	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (+2%)	9mo	$299,900	$175	50
25418 Benroe St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,811 (+8%)	7mo	$284,995	$157	45
5003 Bluebird Song Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-4%)	21mo	$338,351	$212	45
4563 Kellmore Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,439 (-14%)	12mo	$297,000	$206	36
25435 Benroe St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,909 (+14%)	8mo	$299,995	$157	36
5046 Bluebird Song Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,900 (+13%)	22mo	$325,543	$171	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-72,340
• Equity at exit: $50,345

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-106,443
• Equity at exit: $29,194

Cash invested: $94,543 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,065/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $315,915

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,413
• Closing costs: $10,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,049	$1.61	1d	16	1.04mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	1d	25	1.37mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 171 DOM
13. 2025-12-12
    listed $314,990 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Buchanan offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath-with one bedroom available as an optional study. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen-featuring a center island and corner pantry-overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area, providing access to an optional covered patio. Completing the home, a lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath.

14. 2025-12-12
    listed $314,990 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Buchanan offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath-with one bedroom available as an optional study. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen-featuring a center island and corner pantry-overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area, providing access to an optional covered patio. Completing the home, a lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,914
• − Property taxes: −$5,065
• − Insurance: −$1,688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − Depreciation: −$9,823
• Taxable loss: −$7,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It has potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and aesthetics
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $314,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $314,990 Zillow