223 Harding Rd · Harris Hill, NY 14221

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1935 9,235 sqft lot Est $307k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced accordingly, this is a golden opportunity to own a well-located home just seconds from the conveniences of Transit Road and minutes from the charm of Main Street in the Village of Williamsville. This home features a desirable first-floor bedroom and full bath, offering flexibility for a variety of living needs. A rare family room provides additional living space not often found in homes like this—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The basement includes a bonus room, ideal for a home office, gym, or hobby space. An attached garage adds everyday convenience, while the huge corner lot offers plenty of outdoor space and future potential. With solid features, a desirable location

Key facts

• Rare family room
• Attached garage
• Huge corner lot

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• RARE FAMILY ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• HUGE CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.21%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,876
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Berkley Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-3%)	8mo	$301,000	$241	80
140 Harding Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	10mo	$318,000	$239	74
42 Ferndale Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-3%)	24mo	$257,450	$207	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,438
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $52,888
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,903/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,952

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $473	+0% $412	+5% $351	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $314	+0% $412	+5% $509	+10% $607
Rate	-1.0pp $520	-0.5pp $466	base $412	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6842 Main St Unit Townhome Application Williamsville, NY	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,795	$1.69	3d	1	0.47mi
6842 Main St Unit 3 Bedroom Application Williamsville, NY	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,495	$1.80	3d	1	0.47mi
6842 Main St Unit 2 Bedroom Application Williamsville, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,299	$2.09	3d	1	0.47mi
4045 Coventry Green Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,312	$2.26	3d	8	0.50mi
4241 Capstone Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,604	$2.33	3d	8	0.59mi
4100 Stonegate Ln Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1531	$2,691	$1.76	3d	1	0.64mi
25 Spring Meadow Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$2,555	$2.35	3d	14	0.73mi
160 Glendon Pl Williamsville, NY	2.0	2.5	1470	$2,310	$1.57	4d	1	1.16mi
49 S Youngs Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,903 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,903 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,903
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,375
• − Management: −$2,375
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $1,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$398
• After-tax cash flow: $4,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $215,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,903 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.