13410 Graham Yarden Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$360,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,927 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2011 5,671 sqft lot $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome Home to a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home with a spacious 2-car garage (Just built in 2011), offering comfort, upgrades, and serene water views. Step inside to an open and inviting layout featuring granite countertops throughout and Brand-New appliances that make the kitchen both stylish and functional. The home has been thoughtfully updated with modern conveniences, including a New Water Heater and a Water Softener system for added efficiency and peace of mind. The primary living spaces flow seamlessly to a screened-in patio overlooking a tranquil pond view—perfect for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. The pati

Key facts

• Pond view
• Vinyl windows
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• POND VIEW
• VINYL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Crossings Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 869 students, 53% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $275,509 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-52,352
• Equity at exit: $79,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-60,175
• Equity at exit: $77,664

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,060/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,023

Max offer price $322,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-110	+0% $-212	+5% $-314	+10% $-416
Rent	-10% $-429	-5% $-321	+0% $-212	+5% $-103	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-120	base $-212	+0.5pp $-305	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11519 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,600	$1.34	26d	1	0.05mi
11618 Ashton Field Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2114	$2,400	$1.14	1d	1	0.22mi
11328 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	3.5	2532	$2,600	$1.03	12d	1	0.23mi
11412 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	4.0	2523	$3,200	$1.27	26d	1	0.24mi
11424 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,165	$1.18	14d	1	0.28mi
11427 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,310	$1.21	6d	1	0.30mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	1d	1	0.32mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	6d	1	0.32mi
13423 Beechberry Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$2,800	$1.21	4d	1	0.33mi
13263 Evening Sunset Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1959	$2,200	$1.12	6d	1	0.37mi
11716 Navajo Sandstone St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,900	$1.18	6d	1	0.39mi
11211 Flora Springs Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2320	$2,723	$1.17	25d	1	0.45mi
13305 Silvercreek Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,099	$1.20	6d	1	0.48mi
13655 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2351	$3,000	$1.28	0d	1	0.62mi
11510 Harlan Eddy Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2351	$2,700	$1.15	26d	1	0.62mi
11736 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.72mi
13204 Waterleaf Garden Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$3,600	$1.76	6d	1	0.75mi
13625 Silver Charm Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1907	$2,350	$1.23	26d	1	0.83mi
13016 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,500	$1.40	26d	1	0.84mi
11218 Scotchwood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,150	$1.39	16d	1	0.88mi
13230 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,830	$1.44	19d	1	0.89mi
11164 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,050	$1.06	26d	1	0.91mi
11110 Cherrywood Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,045	$1.62	6d	1	0.91mi
12026 Bridge Point Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,180	$1.22	26d	1	0.91mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,800	$2.07	1d	1	0.92mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,800	$2.05	19d	1	0.92mi
12115 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,850	$1.50	6d	1	0.92mi
11810 Tetrafin Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,750	$1.26	26d	1	0.94mi
12116 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,825	$1.42	22d	1	0.94mi
11105 Cherrywood Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,110	$1.55	26d	1	0.94mi
12201 Matchfield Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,595	$1.05	19d	1	0.96mi
11322 Torrey Pines Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2194	$2,300	$1.05	26d	1	0.97mi
11025 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,210	$1.24	15d	1	0.99mi
11838 Blackeyed Susan Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$2,800	$1.54	22d	1	1.00mi
12008 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,215	$1.43	0d	1	1.01mi
13456 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,500	$1.43	19d	1	1.01mi
12019 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1693	$2,230	$1.32	3d	1	1.01mi
11030 Whittney Chase Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,295	$1.81	1d	1	1.04mi
13314 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	16d	1	1.05mi
11025 Whittney Chase Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,235	$1.45	3d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $360,000 Active
3. 2007-12-03
   soldstatus $10,411,400
4. 2005-06-27
   soldstatus $2,155,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,060 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,060 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$4,060
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,645
• − Management: −$2,645
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$8,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $-412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-83.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $360,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $10,411,400 Public Records
• 2005-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $2,155,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2018): $4,060 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.