The Cypress Plan · Shreveport, LA 71129

$49,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 421 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Forest Estates, an all-age, pet-friendly community designed for comfort, fun, and convenience. Our neighborhood features a refreshing pool and a vibrant playground, creating the perfect setting for relaxation and family activities. Located near shopping, dining, and essential services, everything you need is just moments away. Discover a welcoming community where families thrive and neighbors become friends.

Key facts

• Vibrant playground
• Refreshing pool
• Listed 421 days

Tags

• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• REFRESHING POOL
• VIBRANT PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $49,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $149,128.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-35/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 421 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 421 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,128
• List price: $49,999
• Delta: -66.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-24,330
• Equity at exit: $22,235

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-21,343
• Equity at exit: $12,894

Cash invested: $41,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71129

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,237/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $148,709

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $49	+0% $-3	+5% $-54	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-54	+0% $-3	+5% $48	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $35	base $-3	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,282
• Closing costs: $4,474
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,999 Active 421 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,999 Active 420 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,999 Active 419 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,999 Active 418 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,999 Active 416 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,999 Active 415 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,999 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,999 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,999 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,999 Active 410 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,999 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,999 Active 406 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,999 Active 405 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,999 Active 404 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,999 Active 403 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,999 Active 402 DOM
17. 2025-04-23
    listed $49,999 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Welcome to Forest Estates, an all-age, pet-friendly community designed for comfort, fun, and convenience. Our neighborhood features a refreshing pool and a vibrant playground, creating the perfect setting for relaxation and family activities. Located near shopping, dining, and essential services, everything you need is just moments away. Discover a welcoming community where families thrive and neighbors become friends.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,353
• − Property taxes: −$2,237
• − Insurance: −$746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$4,338
• Taxable loss: −$2,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with significant repairs and maintenance needed, including landscaping, fencing, and exterior painting. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown grass and lack of landscaping
• Major Fencing — No visible fencing
• Major Exterior paint — No visible siding or paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety
• Both Exterior painting — Improves home's appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and lack of landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · No visible fencing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior paint · No visible siding or paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Improves home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shreveport, LA
• City population: 164,123
• Population (ZIP): 12,395

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 30% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.87%
• Current HPI: 141.6996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-23 Listed $49,999 Zillow