191 Kemper Ct · Hackettstown, NJ 07840-1679

$429,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,610 sqft · Townhouse public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 2,178 sqft lot $267/sqft · 22% below area Est $553k · 22% under $332/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained townhouse in the desirable Oak Hill community of Independence. This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, a one-car garage, and a finished basement. A stunning two-story foyer with a chandelier welcomes you inside, filling the home with natural light. The formal living and dining room combination, complete with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, a pantry, breakfast bar, and an eat-in area that opens to a deck with stairs leading to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, a loft-style foyer overlooks the kitchen below. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, accompanied by a generously sized second bedroom and a full bathroom. The finished basement provides additional living space with a recreation room, laundry, utility room, extra storage, and direct access to the car garage. Newer water heater, dishwasher, microwave and washer. Conveniently located less than one mile from Hackettstown Hospital, and close to shopping, restaurants, and the Hackettstown train station. Easy access to Routes 80, 46, 57, and 206. HIGHEST & BEST OFFERS DUE ON TUES 4/28 AT 12 NOON

Key facts

• $332 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#128 in NJ, #3,456 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Great Meadows Regional School District (rural): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #183 of 472 in NJ (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #661 of 1,303 statewide, top 54%, 296 students, 11% FRL); Great Meadows Regional Middle School (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D+, #138 of 431 statewide, top 33%, 346 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,684 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $552,669
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: -22.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,910
• Equity at exit: $193,302

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $77,644
• Equity at exit: $297,901

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07840-1679

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,643/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$332
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $-788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,307

Max offer price $290,684

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-545	-5% $-666	+0% $-788	+5% $-910	+10% $-1,031
Rent	-10% $-1,050	-5% $-919	+0% $-788	+5% $-657	+10% $-527
Rate	-1.0pp $-572	-0.5pp $-679	base $-788	+0.5pp $-899	+1.0pp $-1,013

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Woodmont Dr Hackettstown, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$3,800	$3.20	0d	1	0.10mi
842 Belmont Dr Hackettstown, NJ	1.0	1.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	4d	1	0.28mi
112 Bilby Rd Hackettstown, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1161	$3,088	$2.66	0d	13	0.44mi
70 Overlook Dr Hackettstown, NJ	3.0	2.5	1912	$3,400	$1.78	45d	1	1.11mi
211 Grand Ave Unit NA Hackettstown, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $332 · $3,984/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Under Contract 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained townhouse in the desirable Oak Hill community of Independence. This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, a one-car garage, and a finished basement. A stunning two-story foyer with a chandelier welcomes you inside, filling the home with natural light. The formal living and dining room combination, complete with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, a pantry, breakfast bar, and an eat-in area that opens to a deck with stairs leading to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, a loft-style foyer overlooks the kitchen below. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, accompanied by a generously sized second bedroom and a full bathroom. The finished basement provides additional living space with a recreation room, laundry, utility room, extra storage, and direct access to the car garage. Newer water heater, dishwasher, microwave and washer. Conveniently located less than one mile from Hackettstown Hospital, and close to shopping, restaurants, and the Hackettstown train station. Easy access to Routes 80, 46, 57, and 206. HIGHEST & BEST OFFERS DUE ON TUES 4/28 AT 12 NOON

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $429,900 Active 1245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained townhouse in the desirable Oak Hill community of Independence. This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, a one-car garage, and a finished basement. A stunning two-story foyer with a chandelier welcomes you inside, filling the home with natural light. The formal living and dining room combination, complete with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, a pantry, breakfast bar, and an eat-in area that opens to a deck with stairs leading to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, a loft-style foyer overlooks the kitchen below. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, accompanied by a generously sized second bedroom and a full bathroom. The finished basement provides additional living space with a recreation room, laundry, utility room, extra storage, and direct access to the car garage. Newer water heater, dishwasher, microwave and washer. Conveniently located less than one mile from Hackettstown Hospital, and close to shopping, restaurants, and the Hackettstown train station. Easy access to Routes 80, 46, 57, and 206. HIGHEST & BEST OFFERS DUE ON TUES 4/28 AT 12 NOON

3. 2022-10-27
   soldstatus $325,000
4. 2022-10-24
   soldstatus $325,000 Sold
5. 2022-09-30
   status Under Contract
6. 2022-09-06
   price $285,000
7. 2022-08-11
   listed $300,000 Active
8. 2007-06-06
   soldstatus $283,000
9. 2000-09-19
   soldstatus $165,000
10. 1997-10-17
    soldstatus $136,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,643 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,174 · $764/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,531/yr (+$128/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$7,643
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,177
• − Management: −$3,177
• − HOA: −$3,984
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$17,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,081
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Meadows Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3400008
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,690
• Composite: 40.61/100
• National rank: #3692
• State rank: #183 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Hackettstown

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #3456

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+215.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $429,900 GSMLS
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-24 Sold (MLS) $325,000 GSMLS
• 2022-09-30 Pending — GSMLS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $285,000 GSMLS
• 2022-08-11 Listed $300,000 GSMLS
• 2007-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $283,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $136,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,643 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.