401 N Johnson St · Bay City, MI 48708

$89,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1920 10,018 sqft lot $52/sqft · 43% below area Est $155k · 43% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath on double lot! Fenced backyard w/ full basement. Victorian era home features dining room, some hardwood flooring and fireplace! 2 car detached garage for storage. Boiler maybe damaged. Hot Water heat. HUDhomestore.com

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Full basement
• Dining room

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• DINING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1920; Basement present; Below-grade finished area noted
• Construction: Wood and cinder block exterior construction; Block basement foundation
• Exterior features: Paved street frontage; Road frontage (100')

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor — approximately 12 x 11, vinyl flooring; Dining room on first floor — approximately 15 x 14, wood flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second floor) — 15 x 12, carpet; Bedroom 2 (Second floor) — 12 x 15, carpet; Bedroom 3 (Second floor) — approximately 10' wide
• Flooring: Wood flooring in living and dining rooms; Carpet in main bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen and first-floor lavatory
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One lavatory (total 2 baths/lavatories); First-floor lavatory with vinyl flooring; Second-floor bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating via boiler; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Total of 9 rooms; Basement (block)
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (block foundation)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.27%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,936
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -42.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1713 9th St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,633 (-4%)	5mo	$130,000	$80	86
1708 6th St	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,704 (+0%)	6mo	$160,000	$94	81
212 N McLellan St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,746 (+3%)	0mo	$125,000	$72	79
109 N Johnson St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+8%)	1mo	$197,000	$107	69
421 Harold St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,762 (+4%)	2mo	$120,000	$68	68
2147 7th St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,874 (+10%)	5mo	$189,000	$101	59
2229 7th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,888 (+11%)	1mo	$60,000	$32	59
76 Cedar Dr	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,656 (-3%)	1mo	$160,000	$97	55
1912 5th Blvd	0.33mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,921 (+13%)	5mo	$80,000	$42	54
407 S Jackson St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,650 (-3%)	4mo	$45,000	$27	50
309 Harold St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,452 (-15%)	2mo	$111,500	$77	48
2122 2nd St	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,511 (-11%)	2mo	$140,000	$93	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $16,380
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $53,984
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $89,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    listed $130,000 Active 230-char remark
11. 2025-02-01
    status Pending
12. 2025-02-01
    status Pending
13. 2025-01-31
    historical
14. 2025-01-31
    historical
15. 2025-01-24
    price $153,500
16. 2025-01-24
    price $153,500
17. 2025-01-09
    price $155,000
18. 2025-01-08
    price $155,000
19. 2024-12-28
    price $160,000
20. 2024-12-28
    price $160,000
21. 2024-11-07
    price $179,000
22. 2024-11-07
    price $179,000
23. 2024-10-30
    price $189,000
24. 2024-10-30
    price $189,000
25. 2024-10-17
    price $199,000
26. 2024-10-17
    price $199,000
27. 2024-09-01
    listed $205,000 Active
28. 2024-09-01
    listed $205,000 Active
29. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $155,000
30. 2021-09-17
    status Pending
31. 2021-08-26
    price $155,000
32. 2021-08-05
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
33. 2021-08-03
    listed $146,490 Active
34. 2018-08-28
    historical
35. 2018-06-24
    listed $119,900
36. 2002-11-13
    soldstatus $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $4,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $4,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $153,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $153,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $179,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $179,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $189,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $189,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-01 Listed $205,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-01 Listed $205,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-26 Price Changed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-05 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-03 Listed $146,490 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-24 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,558 · +42.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.