18715 Headland Dr · Houston, TX 77433

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1984 6,181 sqft lot Est $198k · 6% over $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 baths in the heart of Cypress! This inviting home offers a functional open floor plan with high ceilings, a spacious living area, well-appointed kitchen, and breakfast/dining space. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of room to relax or entertain. Recent updates include a roof approximately 7 years old, HVAC replaced in 2025, and freshly painted exterior April 2026. Nestled in a quiet, established neighborhood with convenient access to shopping, dining, Hwy 290, Grand Parkway 99, and Beltway 8. Zoned to highly acclaimed Cy-Fair ISD!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recent updates
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• RECENT UPDATES
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Paddock HOA with an annual fee of $404

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1984
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x12); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 12x10 and 10x10)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Tub with shower; Open living/dining area; Six rooms total
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jowell El (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 605 students, 84% FRL); Kahla Middle (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,176 students, 82% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $210k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,117 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,406
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18630 Andalusian Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,184 (+1%)	1mo	$194,000	$164	89
18627 Andalusian Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,135 (-3%)	0mo	$234,900	$207	84
18511 Headland Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,213 (+3%)	3mo	$228,000	$188	79
18519 Haughland Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (+6%)	8mo	$199,500	$160	71
7015 Grackle Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,257 (+7%)	9mo	$199,000	$158	67
7011 Livery Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+11%)	2mo	$219,999	$169	64
7410 Legacy Pines Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+12%)	3mo	$200,000	$152	63
7610 Yucca Field Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,098 (-6%)	9mo	$225,000	$205	61
7602 Yucca Field Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,346 (+15%)	0mo	$238,000	$177	56
7107 Cloaksdale Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+12%)	6mo	$209,000	$158	55
19142 S Whimsey Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+12%)	2mo	$225,000	$170	53
7702 Sunburst Trail Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (+11%)	10mo	$209,950	$161	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-50,164
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-77,428
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,018/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $179,227

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-115	+0% $-174	+5% $-234	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-243	+0% $-174	+5% $-105	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-121	base $-174	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	9d	1	0.17mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	12d	1	0.17mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	45d	1	0.75mi
7202 Barker Cypress Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,447	$1.28	0d	35	0.85mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	0.95mi
19903 Mountain Dale Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,896	$1.40	1d	1	1.04mi
17719 Glenpatti Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,669	$1.19	9d	1	1.10mi
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	45d	1	1.12mi
19943 Crested Hill Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,621	$1.35	9d	1	1.19mi
17712 Northhagen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	846	$1,600	$1.89	9d	1	1.32mi
19939 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,105	$2.26	3d	15	1.32mi
17169 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SNPS2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	45d	1	1.37mi
17807 Northway Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	45d	1	1.39mi
6356 Porterway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,531	$1.34	26d	1	1.41mi
6329 Porterway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,599	$1.40	45d	1	1.42mi
19299 W Little York Rd Unit ACS2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,984	$1.78	45d	1	1.47mi
19299 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	1.0	1.0	723	$1,509	$2.09	26d	1	1.47mi
6316 Porterway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,581	$1.38	3d	1	1.48mi
20211 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,875	$1.76	0d	25	1.49mi
20217 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,565	$1.41	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 590-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,018 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,018 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,018
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+356.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2017-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-05 Listed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2005-11-04 Listed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2003-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,018 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.