210 Post Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$279,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · Condo · 124 Days on market

Built 2006 $189/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. $252/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy all Tubac has to offer with this east facing 3 bedroom/2bath townhome in the Embarcadero Community! With wood beams & a beehive fireplace in the living room, this home lends itself to the southwest lifestyle. Enjoy cool evenings on the front patio which has its own fireplace to enjoy a beverage at the end of the day. With 3 bedrooms you have plenty of room for guests or to have that extra area for an office or hobby room. The entire inside is freshly painted & ready for you to put on the finishing touches. Combined with a resort style pool & workout facility you have everything you need to stay in shape.

Key facts

• Front patio
• Beehive fireplace
• Resort style pool

Tags

• BEEHIVE FIREPLACE
• FRONT PATIO
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• WORKOUT FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-396 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $279k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.65%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,603
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -3.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $50,846
• Equity at exit: $79,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $157,446
• Equity at exit: $93,448

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,032/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$252
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,533

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,112	-5% $1,033	+0% $954	+5% $875	+10% $796
Rent	-10% $659	-5% $806	+0% $954	+5% $1,102	+10% $1,249
Rate	-1.0pp $1,095	-0.5pp $1,025	base $954	+0.5pp $882	+1.0pp $808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $252 · $3,024/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $279,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $306,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Enjoy all Tubac has to offer with this east facing 3 bedroom/2bath townhome in the Embarcadero Community! With wood beams & a beehive fireplace in the living room, this home lends itself to the southwest lifestyle. Enjoy cool evenings on the front patio which has its own fireplace to enjoy a beverage at the end of the day. With 3 bedrooms you have plenty of room for guests or to have that extra area for an office or hobby room. The entire inside is freshly painted & ready for you to put on the finishing touches. Combined with a resort style pool & workout facility you have everything you need to stay in shape.

17. 2025-02-04
    historical
18. 2024-11-05
    price $327,000
19. 2024-03-08
    listed $337,000 Active
20. 2010-10-29
    soldstatus $135,500
21. 2010-09-15
    listed $135,500
22. 2009-05-28
    historical
23. 2008-05-28
    listed $324,000
24. 2006-12-19
    soldstatus $320,940

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,032 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,032 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,032
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,591
• − Management: −$3,591
• − HOA: −$3,024
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $7,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $9,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $306,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $327,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-08 Listed $337,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-10-29 Sold (MLS) $135,500 MLSSAZ
• 2010-09-15 Listed $135,500 MLSSAZ
• 2009-05-28 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2008-05-28 Listed $324,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $320,940 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,032 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.