14107 Ballfour Park Ln · Houston, TX 77047

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2004 4,599 sqft lot Est $233k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All agents may advertise this property with exceptions of MLS and yard signs. HUD Acquired property sold as is whereas. Features a 2 car garage, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a fireplace. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, schools, features, etc. Sq. ft. information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer must verify all information.

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• Fenced backyard
• Breakfast area

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• BREAKFAST AREA
• CUTE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Brunswick Lakes community association; Association fee $450 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2004; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot about 4,600 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 18); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Law El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 514 students, 91% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,644 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14215 Dreamscape Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,226 (+2%)	3mo	$224,900	$183	85
4010 Bealey Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-3%)	18mo	$239,999	$206	76
14514 Sweetwater View Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+1%)	8mo	$235,000	$194	63
3734 Forney Ridge Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,105 (-8%)	15mo	$224,900	$204	63
3603 Canvasback Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	12mo	$249,786	$185	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-43,220
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-63,989
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,601/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $199,992

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $3	+0% $-56	+5% $-115	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-134	+0% $-56	+5% $22	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-3	base $-56	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4071 Schurmier Rd Unit SLC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	5d	1	0.27mi
13561 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	45d	1	0.62mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	45d	35	0.62mi
4023 Almond Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,980	$1.40	45d	1	0.71mi
13958 Cottingham St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,825	$1.74	0d	35	0.80mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	26	0.85mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	9d	1	1.22mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	24d	1	1.35mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	9d	1	1.40mi
1555 Cullen Blvd Unit 1592 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,045	$1.56	1d	1	1.43mi
1555 Cullen Blvd Unit 421 Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,061	$1.57	7d	1	1.43mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-25
    listed $209,900 Active
16. 2024-09-05
    soldstatus
17. 2011-10-28
    soldstatus 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    All agents may advertise this property with exceptions of MLS and yard signs. HUD Acquired property sold as is whereas. Features a 2 car garage, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a fireplace. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, schools, features, etc. Sq. ft. information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer must verify all information.

18. 2011-10-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    All agents may advertise this property with exceptions of MLS and yard signs. HUD Acquired property sold as is whereas. Features a 2 car garage, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a fireplace. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, schools, features, etc. Sq. ft. information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer must verify all information.

19. 2011-10-03
    historical 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    All agents may advertise this property with exceptions of MLS and yard signs. HUD Acquired property sold as is whereas. Features a 2 car garage, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a fireplace. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, schools, features, etc. Sq. ft. information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer must verify all information.

20. 2011-04-02
    listed $55,000 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    All agents may advertise this property with exceptions of MLS and yard signs. HUD Acquired property sold as is whereas. Features a 2 car garage, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a fireplace. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, schools, features, etc. Sq. ft. information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer must verify all information.

21. 2007-08-09
    historical
22. 2007-01-11
    listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,601 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,601 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$4,601
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+67.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-10-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-02 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2007-08-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-01-11 Listed $125,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,601 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.