23 Oaklawn Ave · La Vale, MD 21502

$154,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1981 9,632 sqft lot $50/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property being sold as is . Please take a look at this great cape cod with lots of potential and modern kitchen

Key facts

• 9,632 sq ft lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#82 in MD, #3,161 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,185
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -52.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 Weires Ave	0.44mi	5/3.0	3,158 (+2%)	14mo	$299,900	$95	60
15 Warfield Pl	0.55mi	5/2.5	2,830 (-8%)	8mo	$305,000	$108	52
207 Sunset Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,181 (+3%)	10mo	$260,000	$82	44
1021 National Hwy	0.39mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,320 (+8%)	22mo	$239,000	$72	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,129
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $55,578
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,050/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $154,900 Active 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Property being sold as is . Please take a look at this great cape cod with lots of potential and modern kitchen

16. 2025-09-24
    historical
17. 2025-07-09
    price $208,999
18. 2025-07-01
    price $219,000
19. 2025-06-24
    listed $230,000 Active
20. 2025-06-04
    historical
21. 2025-04-08
    price $289,000
22. 2025-02-25
    listed $299,999 Active
23. 2019-04-08
    soldstatus $163,000
24. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $163,000 Closed
25. 2019-01-25
    status Pending
26. 2018-10-09
    listed $175,000 Active
27. 2015-02-20
    historical
28. 2015-02-20
    soldstatus $51,500 Sold
29. 2015-02-20
    soldstatus $51,500
30. 2014-12-29
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
31. 2014-12-29
    historical
32. 2014-11-30
    listed $55,500 Active
33. 2014-11-30
    listed $55,500
34. 2007-08-28
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,050
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $2,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — La Vale

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #3161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Vale, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+23.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $208,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $299,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) $163,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-09 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-02-20 Sold (MLS) $51,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-20 Sold (MLS) $51,500 MRIS
• 2014-12-29 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-12-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-30 Listed $55,500 MRIS
• 2014-11-30 Listed $55,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,050 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.