11 Shell Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$685,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1991 3,920 sqft lot Est $914k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WAITING FOR A BARGAIN? Look at this starter home, low maintenance, close to beaches and town, dead end street., Additional information: Appearance:good

Key facts

• Pullout drawers
• Vaulted ceiling
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• VAULTED CEILING
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PULLOUT DRAWERS
• OVERSIZED FARM SINK
• TOP-OF-THE-LINE APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Updated/remodeled condition; Dormer attic; Basement with Bilco door(s)
• Exterior features: Advanced framing construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in chef's kitchen with granite counters and pantry; Cooktop; Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Built-in features; Cathedral ceiling; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High ceilings; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Pantry; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in kitchen and in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $685k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $685k).
• Recommended offer: $603k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,853/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $192k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($603k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $485k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $602,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.92%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $914,328
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Shell Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	648 (0%)	1mo	$680,000	$1,049	99
51 Shore Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	676 (+4%)	3mo	$953,780	$1,411	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $61,763
• Equity at exit: $102,136

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $410,998
• Equity at exit: $59,226

Cash invested: $191,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,132/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,649
• Net cashflow: $2,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,239

Max offer price $685,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,453	-5% $2,259	+0% $2,065	+5% $1,871	+10% $1,677
Rent	-10% $1,444	-5% $1,755	+0% $2,065	+5% $2,375	+10% $2,685
Rate	-1.0pp $2,410	-0.5pp $2,239	base $2,065	+0.5pp $1,887	+1.0pp $1,707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $171,250
• Closing costs: $20,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 W Montauk Hwy Hampton Bays, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	610	$4,195	$6.88	44d	1	0.67mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	0d	11	0.67mi
49 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$12,000	$24.00	7d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $685,000
3. 2025-12-29
   status Active
4. 2025-11-26
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-09
   listed $695,000 Active
6. 2023-06-08
   soldstatus $485,000
7. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus $485,000 Closed 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   WAITING FOR A BARGAIN? Look at this starter home, low maintenance, close to beaches and town, dead end street., Additional information: Appearance:good

8. 2023-04-07
   soldstatus $485,000
9. 2023-02-23
   status Pending 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   WAITING FOR A BARGAIN? Look at this starter home, low maintenance, close to beaches and town, dead end street., Additional information: Appearance:good

10. 2022-12-09
    listed $499,000 Active 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    WAITING FOR A BARGAIN? Look at this starter home, low maintenance, close to beaches and town, dead end street., Additional information: Appearance:good

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,354 · $613/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,222/yr (+$352/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,371
• − Property taxes: −$3,132
• − Insurance: −$3,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,538
• − Management: −$7,538
• − Depreciation: −$19,927
• Taxable income: $14,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,432
• After-tax cash flow: $21,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $685,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-09 Listed $695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-10 Sold (MLS) $485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-09 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,132 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.