405 SW 257th Ter · Newberry, FL 32669

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

High Value, Low Maintenance. Looking for a perfect starter home? This 3BR/2BA property checks every box. Between the brand-new A/C, 2011 metal roof, and recent interior cosmetic overhaul (paint and floors), this home is truly a great place to put down some roots. The corner lot provides extra space and privacy, while the location across from Newberry High ensures long-term desirability. Private and quiet, sit on your back patio and listen to the birds sing. Featuring a private primary suite and a large storage shed, this property is easy to show and even easier to love. Ask us about no-money-down programs to get in with zero out-of-pocket! OR seller buy down program that could lock you in at an interest rate in the low 5's.

Key facts

• Corner-lot home
• Metal roof
• Brand new a/c

Tags

• CORNER-LOT HOME
• COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• METAL ROOF
• BRAND NEW A/C

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newberry Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Oak View Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 964 students, 49% FRL); Newberry High School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 728 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $220k implies a 406% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.19%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,662
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $32,794
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,015/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,683

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $483	+0% $421	+5% $358	+10% $296
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $333	+0% $421	+5% $508	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $477	base $421	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25107 SW 9th Ln Newberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,095	$1.45	15d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-13
   price $229,000 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   High Value, Low Maintenance. Looking for a perfect starter home? This 3BR/2BA property checks every box. Between the brand-new A/C, 2011 metal roof, and recent interior cosmetic overhaul (paint and floors), this home is truly a great place to put down some roots. The corner lot provides extra space and privacy, while the location across from Newberry High ensures long-term desirability. Private and quiet, sit on your back patio and listen to the birds sing. Featuring a private primary suite and a large storage shed, this property is easy to show and even easier to love. Ask us about no-money-down programs to get in with zero out-of-pocket! OR seller buy down program that could lock you in at an interest rate in the low 5's.

2. 2026-03-02
   price $244,000 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   High Value, Low Maintenance. Looking for a perfect starter home? This 3BR/2BA property checks every box. Between the brand-new A/C, 2011 metal roof, and recent interior cosmetic overhaul (paint and floors), this home is truly a great place to put down some roots. The corner lot provides extra space and privacy, while the location across from Newberry High ensures long-term desirability. Private and quiet, sit on your back patio and listen to the birds sing. Featuring a private primary suite and a large storage shed, this property is easy to show and even easier to love. Ask us about no-money-down programs to get in with zero out-of-pocket! OR seller buy down program that could lock you in at an interest rate in the low 5's.

3. 2026-02-05
   status Active 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   High Value, Low Maintenance. Looking for a perfect starter home? This 3BR/2BA property checks every box. Between the brand-new A/C, 2011 metal roof, and recent interior cosmetic overhaul (paint and floors), this home is truly a great place to put down some roots. The corner lot provides extra space and privacy, while the location across from Newberry High ensures long-term desirability. Private and quiet, sit on your back patio and listen to the birds sing. Featuring a private primary suite and a large storage shed, this property is easy to show and even easier to love. Ask us about no-money-down programs to get in with zero out-of-pocket! OR seller buy down program that could lock you in at an interest rate in the low 5's.

4. 2025-12-05
   price $249,000 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   High Value, Low Maintenance. Looking for a perfect starter home? This 3BR/2BA property checks every box. Between the brand-new A/C, 2011 metal roof, and recent interior cosmetic overhaul (paint and floors), this home is truly a great place to put down some roots. The corner lot provides extra space and privacy, while the location across from Newberry High ensures long-term desirability. Private and quiet, sit on your back patio and listen to the birds sing. Featuring a private primary suite and a large storage shed, this property is easy to show and even easier to love. Ask us about no-money-down programs to get in with zero out-of-pocket! OR seller buy down program that could lock you in at an interest rate in the low 5's.

5. 2025-11-12
   listed $260,000 Active 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   High Value, Low Maintenance. Looking for a perfect starter home? This 3BR/2BA property checks every box. Between the brand-new A/C, 2011 metal roof, and recent interior cosmetic overhaul (paint and floors), this home is truly a great place to put down some roots. The corner lot provides extra space and privacy, while the location across from Newberry High ensures long-term desirability. Private and quiet, sit on your back patio and listen to the birds sing. Featuring a private primary suite and a large storage shed, this property is easy to show and even easier to love. Ask us about no-money-down programs to get in with zero out-of-pocket! OR seller buy down program that could lock you in at an interest rate in the low 5's.

6. 1992-12-23
   soldstatus $43,500
7. 1984-03-01
   soldstatus $37,000
8. 1983-07-01
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,015 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$811/yr (+$68/mo · 79.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,015
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $1,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $4,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+717.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $244,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 1984-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,015 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.