397 River St · Chester, VT 05143

$325,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1854 2.00 ac lot $106/sqft · 28% below area Est $492k · 34% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Some properties just radiate a certain warmth, charm and magic and this home is definitely one of them. Imagine sitting on the front porch and listening the soft rustle of the willow tree leaves and the babbling brook trickling by, then you step inside and feel that you have walked into a home that was truly loved. The large kitchen offers nice upgrades including tile floor, granite countertops and appliances. The main level offers a bedroom, dining room, office space and living room. All of the windows have been replaced (except in the attic), updated electric panel, insulation done by Efficiency VT, new stoves in the barn room and living room (see MLS docs for the complete list). This pro

Key facts

• Tile floor
• New stoves
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• TILE FLOOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED ELECTRIC PANEL
• NEW STOVES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical panel; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Antique farmhouse style; Existing structure; Metal roof; Built in 1854
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Country setting; Level lot; In-town location; Neighborhood setting; Gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating; Mini-split heating and cooling
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Crawl space basement with dirt floor (unfinished); Carpet, hardwood and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#30 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Chester Andover Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 192 statewide, top 82%, 270 students, 44% FRL); Green Mountain Union High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #20 of 48 statewide, top 45%, 326 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1854 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1854 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.57%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $491,911
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -33.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Main St	0.66mi	4/4.0	3,024 (-1%)	8mo	$140,000	$46	57
198 Coach Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,904 (-5%)	12mo	$350,000	$121	56
95 Church St	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,794 (-8%)	2mo	$563,000	$202	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $200,400
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $571,875
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05143

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,141/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,836

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $459	+0% $367	+5% $275	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $236	+0% $367	+5% $497	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $449	base $367	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
735 Main St Chester, VT	4.0	3.0	2200	$3,300	$1.50	16d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $349,000 Active 1591-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,141 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,158 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,141
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $4,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Chester

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #6451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chester, VT
• Population (ZIP): 4,916

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.13%
• Current HPI: 352.8055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $325,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $349,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,141 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.