26157 W Runion Dr · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$325,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2007 5,280 sqft lot Est $351k · 7% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath home in the desirable Festival Foothills just minutes from the elementary school! A manicured desert landscape, 2 car garage, and a gated courtyard are just the beginning. The interior features tons of natural light, a freshly painted neutral palette, ALL NEW CARPET & tile flooring throughout. You'll love the spacious formal living room paired with sliding doors to the back! The eat-in kitchen boasts built-in appliances and a cozy dining space. The large main bedroom has an ensuite with dual sinks & a walk-in closet. Tranquility awaits in the backyard! It is perfect for relaxation and gatherings with a covered patio. Enjoy the community par

Key facts

• New carpet
• Natural light
• Tile flooring

Tags

• MANICURED DESERT LANDSCAPE
• GATED COURTYARD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NEW CARPET
• TILE FLOORING
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with $115 monthly fee covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities: golf, playground, biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener and direct access
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Desert and mountain views
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Automatic timer irrigation front and back; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Pantry; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Furnished (see remarks); No interior steps; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 951 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,305 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $350,812
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26320 W Potter Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (+1%)	2mo	$325,700	$218	75
26109 W Runion Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+10%)	3mo	$300,000	$185	74
19794 N 264th Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (+1%)	1mo	$340,000	$228	65
21235 N 262nd Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-4%)	3mo	$270,000	$191	58
26485 W Pontiac Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+9%)	1mo	$445,000	$276	54
26638 W Irma Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-7%)	2mo	$375,000	$273	54
26455 W Pontiac Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+9%)	3mo	$417,000	$259	54
26494 W Sierra Pinta Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+9%)	2mo	$370,000	$230	52
21361 N 262nd Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+9%)	3mo	$380,000	$236	47
26679 W Irma Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-7%)	3mo	$339,500	$247	46
21489 N 262nd Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+9%)	2mo	$449,900	$279	43
26126 W Piute Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,261 (-14%)	2mo	$300,000	$238	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-51,032
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-39,314
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,656/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,662

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $101	+0% $9	+5% $-83	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-97	+0% $9	+5% $115	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $92	base $9	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	4d	1	0.38mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	0d	1	0.43mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	45d	1	0.46mi
26087 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,300	$1.42	45d	1	0.46mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	26d	1	0.55mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	4d	1	0.72mi
21605 N 261st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$2,000	$1.79	0d	1	0.72mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	0d	1	0.77mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,900	$2.11	0d	1	0.80mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,850	$2.07	12d	1	0.80mi
26170 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$3,300	$2.96	3d	1	0.84mi
26195 W Via del Sol Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,300	$2.21	0d	1	0.86mi
26208 W Tina Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$1,999	$1.24	14d	1	0.93mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	20d	1	0.97mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	45d	1	1.08mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	0d	1	1.12mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	3d	1	1.20mi
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	45d	1	1.33mi
27244 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,500	$2.17	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,656
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,566
• − Management: −$2,566
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $1,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $325,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,656 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.