616 Osceola Cir · Fairfield, AL 35064

$9,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1948 7,840 sqft lot $12/sqft · 83% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property has fire damage. Enter at your own risk. Hold Harmless required for entry contact agent for form to e-sign. Sold AS-IS, Where-IS.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 181 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $714 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($991 rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $9k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 92.9% vs local median 10.2% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
• Fairfield City (suburban): math 2% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #125 of 129 in AL (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: C J Donald Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 257 statewide, top 90%, 332 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $68 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $297 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $8,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 92.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 309.25%
• DSCR: 14.76
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,102
• List price: $9,900
• Delta: -83.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
552 Osceola Cir	0.06mi	2/1.0	788 (-5%)	17mo	$50,000	$63	75
129 61st St	0.60mi	2/1.0	756 (-9%)	12mo	$19,000	$25	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.84×
• Total profit: $43,909
• Equity at exit: $1,476

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.95×
• Total profit: $96,882
• Equity at exit: $856

Cash invested: $2,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35064

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $148/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $9,900

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $721	-5% $718	+0% $714	+5% $711	+10% $708
Rent	-10% $636	-5% $675	+0% $714	+5% $754	+10% $793
Rate	-1.0pp $719	-0.5pp $717	base $714	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,475
• Closing costs: $297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6516 Millard Fuller Rd Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.5	1120	$950	$0.85	5d	1	0.21mi
125 Jerry Coleman St Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	715	$725	$1.01	46d	1	0.52mi
407 Fairfax Dr Fairfield, AL	1.0	1.5	850	$1,160	$1.36	46d	2	0.94mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 432-13 Fairfield, AL	1.0	1.0	555	$775	$1.40	12d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 444-12 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	888	$910	$1.02	12d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 400-1 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.5	935	$1,175	$1.26	5d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 400-12 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	888	$915	$1.03	12d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 424-10 Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.5	1035	$1,275	$1.23	14d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 416-11 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.5	935	$975	$1.04	5d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 424-3 Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.5	1035	$1,200	$1.16	12d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 436-11 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.5	935	$910	$0.97	12d	1	0.97mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 436-10 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	888	$890	$1.00	12d	1	0.97mi
410 54th St Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	1068	$700	$0.66	5d	1	1.03mi
5503 Myron Massey Blvd Fairfield, AL	3.0	2.0	1119	$1,200	$1.07	46d	1	1.16mi
336 McPherson Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1094	$1,100	$1.01	26d	1	1.27mi
340 McPherson Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	924	$910	$0.98	46d	1	1.27mi
925 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1104	$950	$0.86	46d	1	1.43mi
1376 Creel Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,000	$0.99	46d	1	1.44mi
5712 Monte Sano Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	46d	1	1.44mi
1433 Rayfield Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$950	$0.89	46d	1	1.44mi
517 Grant St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$850	$0.93	26d	1	1.45mi
1317 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	672	$800	$1.19	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $9,900 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $9,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $9,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $9,900 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $9,900 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $9,900 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $9,900 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $9,900 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $9,900 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $9,900 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $9,900 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $9,900 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $9,900 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    price $9,900 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Property has fire damage. Enter at your own risk. Hold Harmless required for entry contact agent for form to e-sign. Sold AS-IS, Where-IS.

16. 2025-12-22
    listed $19,900 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Property has fire damage. Enter at your own risk. Hold Harmless required for entry contact agent for form to e-sign. Sold AS-IS, Where-IS.

17. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus $61,000
18. 2020-10-14
    soldstatus $30,500 Sold 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    2BR 1BA. Tenant occupied. Rented for $550/mo. Can be sold as a package with 2 other properties. All located in the Forest Hills subdivision and currently rented for $550/mo.

19. 2020-10-10
    historical Contingent 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    2BR 1BA. Tenant occupied. Rented for $550/mo. Can be sold as a package with 2 other properties. All located in the Forest Hills subdivision and currently rented for $550/mo.

20. 2020-10-05
    status Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    2BR 1BA. Tenant occupied. Rented for $550/mo. Can be sold as a package with 2 other properties. All located in the Forest Hills subdivision and currently rented for $550/mo.

21. 2020-09-30
    historical Contingent 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    2BR 1BA. Tenant occupied. Rented for $550/mo. Can be sold as a package with 2 other properties. All located in the Forest Hills subdivision and currently rented for $550/mo.

22. 2020-09-17
    listed $39,900 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    2BR 1BA. Tenant occupied. Rented for $550/mo. Can be sold as a package with 2 other properties. All located in the Forest Hills subdivision and currently rented for $550/mo.

23. 2018-11-21
    soldstatus $45,100
24. 2003-06-23
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$555
• − Property taxes: −$148
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$288
• Taxable income: $8,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,147
• After-tax cash flow: $6,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield City
• NCES district ID: 0101440
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,288
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9974
• State rank: #125 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #14390

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 9,872
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 9,872
• Household income: $48,692
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% White 7% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.47%
• Current HPI: 124.7012
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-77.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $9,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $19,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-14 Sold (MLS) $30,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-10-10 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-10-05 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-09-30 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-09-17 Listed $39,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,100 Public Records
• 2003-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $992 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.