230 Riverview Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,499 – $2,785
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 3/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 6.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +4.8/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.0/10.0
$130,000
230 Riverview Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 92 Days on market
Built 1984
0.25 ac lot
$97/sqft
· 28% below area
Est $182k · 28% under
$110/mo HOA · 6% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Seller is offering up to $10,000 in buyer concessions with the right offer! Updated 3BR, 2BA home located just minutes from Greers Ferry Lake and the Lynn Creek public boat launch. Improvements completed in February 2024 include luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh interior paint, granite countertops, and a glass tile backsplash. Additional updates include select light fixtures and ceiling fans. Metal roof is approximately 5 years old, and the cedar log exterior was installed in 2000. Enjoy the freshly stained wraparound deck with a covered rear section, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home is served by a private septic system, eliminating monthly sewer fees.
Key facts
- Fresh interior paint
- Granite countertops
- 0.25 acre lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
- Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.5% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $280 of equity ($899 loan paydown + $-619 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
- Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $39k; list at $130k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$118,300
(9.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.54% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.53%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.26%
- DSCR
- 1.99
- GRM
- 5.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $181,561
- List price
- $130,000
- Delta
- -28.40%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170 Lynn Creek Dr | 0.29mi | 3/2.0 | 1,350 (+0%) | 1mo | $489,000 | $362 | 84 |
| 146 Overlook Dr | 0.20mi | 3/2.0 | 1,244 (-7%) | 14mo | $315,000 | $253 | 66 |
| 135 Overlook Dr | 0.28mi | 3/2.5 | 1,356 (+1%) | 22mo | $299,900 | $221 | 65 |
| 122 Meadow Cliff Cir | 0.51mi | 3/2.0 | 1,392 (+4%) | 14mo | $115,000 | $83 | 58 |
| 235 Cedar Vly | 0.53mi | 3/2.0 | 1,440 (+7%) | 12mo | $166,000 | $115 | 54 |
| 112 Wilshire Dr | 0.65mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,328 (-1%) | 13mo | $250,000 | $188 | 52 |
| 309 Timber Rd Rd | 0.36mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,232 (-8%) | 18mo | $158,000 | $128 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 21.2%
- Equity multiple
- 2.00×
- Total profit
- $36,358
- Equity at exit
- $34,681
10-year hold
- IRR
- 25.9%
- Equity multiple
- 3.78×
- Total profit
- $101,049
- Equity at exit
- $39,313
Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arkansas
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 10 active · 5 under contract
- Months of supply
- 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $159,950 ($138/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 134 d
- This list price
- 20% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -2.3% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 72088
- Home prices YoY
- -0.2%
- Active inventory
- 339
- Price-to-rent
- 5.4×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,000 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$682
- Tax from tax record
- −$59 /mo · $706/yr
- Insurance
- −$54
- HOA
- −$110
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$420
- Net cashflow
- $675
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,145
Max offer price
$130,000
Occupancy floor
61%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $749 | -5% $712 | +0% $675 | +5% $639 | +10% $602 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $517 | -5% $596 | +0% $675 | +5% $754 | +10% $833 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $741 | -0.5pp $708 | base $675 | +0.5pp $642 | +1.0pp $607 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $32,500
- Closing costs
- $3,900
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $2,000 | $1.54 | 140d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Property located inside city limits of Fairfield Bay in Van Buren County, subdivision LakewoodApproximate lot dimensions 75x139 (approx. 0.25 acre)
- Financial info
- Financing options: conventional new loan, cash, or in-house financing
- HOA & community
- Monthly association fee of $110 covering garbage and private roadsCommunity amenities include swimming pools, tennis courts, marina, and fitness/bike trails; some amenities require mandatory fee
Exterior
- Parking
- Parking pads for 2 cars
- Utilities
- Septic systemElectric served by coopPropane/butane gas
- Home design
- Frame exterior
- Construction
- Crawl space foundationMetal roof
- Exterior features
- DeckPaved road accessResort property in subdivisionRiver/lake area with common access to lakeLevel lotDown slope
Interior
- Kitchen
- Free-standing stoveElectric rangeRefrigerator included
- Flooring
- Luxury vinyl flooring
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Heat pump
- Interior features
- Washer connection with washer includedDryer connection (electric) with dryer includedElectric water heaterWalk-in closet(s)Ceiling fan(s)Granite slab kitchen countertops
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry area with washer and dryer includedWorkshop/Craft spaceUnfinished space
HOA detail $110/mo · $1,320/yr
- Likely covers
- sewer
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $130,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $130,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $130,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $130,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $130,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $130,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $130,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $130,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $130,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $130,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $130,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-09-11statusdays on market $130,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $130,000 Back on Market 73 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $130,000 Back on Market 72 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $130,000 Back on Market 71 DOM
-
2026-09-02statusdays on market $130,000 Back on Market 70 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $130,000 Take Backups 67 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $130,000 Take Backups 66 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $130,000 Take Backups 65 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $130,000 Take Backups 64 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $130,000 Take Backups 63 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $130,000 Take Backups 62 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $130,000 Take Backups 61 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $130,000 Take Backups 60 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $130,000 Take Backups 59 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $130,000 Take Backups 58 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $130,000 Take Backups 57 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $130,000 Take Backups 56 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $130,000 Take Backups 55 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $130,000 Take Backups 54 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $130,000 Take Backups 53 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $130,000 Take Backups 52 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $130,000 Take Backups 51 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $130,000 Take Backups 50 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $130,000 Take Backups 49 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $130,000 Take Backups 48 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $130,000 Take Backups 47 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $130,000 Take Backups 46 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $130,000 Take Backups 45 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $130,000 Take Backups 44 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $130,000 Take Backups 43 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $130,000 Take Backups 42 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $130,000 Take Backups 41 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $130,000 Take Backups 40 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $130,000 Take Backups 37 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $130,000 Take Backups 36 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $130,000 Take Backups 35 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $130,000 Take Backups 33 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $130,000 Take Backups 31 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $706 · $59/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $832 · $69/mo
- Expected delta
- +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 17.9%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,000
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,282
- − Property taxes
- −$706
- − Insurance
- −$650
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,920
- − Management
- −$1,920
- − HOA
- −$1,320
- − Depreciation
- −$3,782
- Taxable income
- $6,421
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,541
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,563/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening
This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates, including new flooring, paint, and kitchen and bathroom fixtures. It is located near a lake and public boat launch, making it a great investment opportunity.
Components & finishes AI
Roof metal · good
Flooring hardwood
Counters granite
Appliances white
HVAC central · new lt5
Value-add opportunities
- Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
- Both painting exterior and interior — fresh paint improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Shirley Elementary School
F
AR #419/454
Nat'l #38,100/41,679
High
Shirley High School
F
AR #164/292
Nat'l #11,887/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Shirley School District
- NCES district ID
- 0512420
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▲ 4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 42% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $36,296
- Composite
- 37.98/100
- National rank
- #8669
- State rank
- #132 of 245 in AR
C
Composite livability gradescore 62/100
Livability — Fairfield Bay
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #220
- US rank
- #16778
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime B
Employment D+
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings C
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Fairfield Bay, AR
- County
- Van Buren · 15,459 people
- City population
- 2,264
- Population (ZIP)
- 2,264
- Household income
- $54,508
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 13% of renters
Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 15,459 people
- By 2030
- 14,645 · -5.3%
- By 2040
- 12,918 · -16.4%
- By 2050
- 11,263 · -27.1%
- By 2075
- 7,870 · -49.1%
- By 2100
- 4,918 · -68.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -0.48%
- Current HPI
- 238.2694
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.80%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 1 | $681B |
|
||
| Food / Agriculture | 1 | $53B |
|
||
| Retail / Energy | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $12B |
|
||
| Energy | 1 | $4B |
|
||
Price history
+209.5% since first listed15 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-24 Listed $130,000 CARMLS
- 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
- 2025-07-23 Rental Removed $1,200 CARMLS
- 2025-06-08 Listed for Rent $1,200 CARMLS
- 2024-11-26 Rental Removed $1,200 CARMLS
- 2024-11-03 Listed $139,000 CARMLS
- 2024-10-31 Listed for Rent $1,200 CARMLS
- 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — CARMLS
- 2024-04-26 Price Changed $144,000 CARMLS
- 2024-03-21 Listed $148,000 CARMLS
- 2015-11-11 Sold (MLS) $39,000 CARMLS
- 2015-08-12 Listed $44,900 CARMLS
- 2006-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
- 2003-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
- 1999-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.2%/yrLatest (2025): $706 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…