3658 N Meadow Mill Dr · Arnold, MO 63010

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1991 0.38 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sprawling 3 Bedroom Ranch on large level lot that backs to wooded area is ready for new owners! Walking in you will notice the spacious living area with tons of natural light, cathedral ceilings, and beautiful wood burning fireplace. The open concept continues to the breakfast room/kitchen where there is plenty of cabinet and counter space for the family chef! Nice size master suite that will accommodate a king size bed and offers a private soaking tub, separate shower and double vanity sinks. The fenced in back yard features a 10X12 patio perfect for entertaining or sipping your morning coffee! Everything you need all on one level makes this home desirable and easy to maintain, don't miss out!

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Concrete construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Fenced yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fox Elem. (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 380 students, 40% FRL); Fox Sr. High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,742 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,412 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,319
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,356
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63010

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,748/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $337	+0% $276	+5% $215	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $194	+0% $276	+5% $358	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $330	base $276	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3565 Stone Mill Dr Arnold, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,125	$1.52	2d	1	0.08mi
10 Branson Dr Arnold, MO	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $215,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   status $215,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-02
   listed $215,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,748
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $3,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• City population: 34,478
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,478
• Household income: $79,784
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% American 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.53%
• Current HPI: 190.586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+19.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $215,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-30 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-25 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-19 Coming Soon $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,748 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.