2820 Octagon Church Rd · Goochland, VA 23102

$219,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1930 3.93 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2820 Octagon Church Rd in Maidens, VA! This charming bungalow is conveniently located just minutes from I-64 at Oilville and close to Short Pump, offering the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Situated on 3.93 peaceful acres tucked back off the road, this property is full of potential. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a flexible bonus room that could serve as an office, guest space, or hobby room. Enjoy relaxing on the screened porch while taking in the beautiful views and abundant wildlife. The expansive lot may offer subdivision potential, making this a great opportunity to live in the home while building your dream house. The property does need some updates and is being sold as-is, but with a little vision and work, it could truly shine. Cash or conventional financing only.

Key facts

• Abundant wildlife
• Flexible bonus room
• Screened porch

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• SUBDIVISION POTENTIAL
• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 3.93 acres; Level to rolling terrain with split-possible topography; Zoning: A2; Above-grade finished area reported

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Drywall interior; Mixed materials; Wood siding; Built previously (year reported as actual)
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Side porch; Stoop; Outbuilding(s); Shed(s); Storage building; Utility building(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Includes bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Partial basement; Gas ventless fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.6% in Goochland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#160 in VA, #4,994 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,905
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $24,097
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23102

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,685

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Anderson Mill Dr Bumpass, VA	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,195	$1.51	2d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-24
   listed $219,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (822 chars)

   Welcome to 2820 Octagon Church Rd in Maidens, VA! This charming bungalow is conveniently located just minutes from I-64 at Oilville and close to Short Pump, offering the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Situated on 3.93 peaceful acres tucked back off the road, this property is full of potential. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a flexible bonus room that could serve as an office, guest space, or hobby room. Enjoy relaxing on the screened porch while taking in the beautiful views and abundant wildlife. The expansive lot may offer subdivision potential, making this a great opportunity to live in the home while building your dream house. The property does need some updates and is being sold as-is, but with a little vision and work, it could truly shine. Cash or conventional financing only.

2. 2026-05-24
   listed $219,000 Active 822-char remark

   Show marketing remark (822 chars)

   Welcome to 2820 Octagon Church Rd in Maidens, VA! This charming bungalow is conveniently located just minutes from I-64 at Oilville and close to Short Pump, offering the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Situated on 3.93 peaceful acres tucked back off the road, this property is full of potential. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a flexible bonus room that could serve as an office, guest space, or hobby room. Enjoy relaxing on the screened porch while taking in the beautiful views and abundant wildlife. The expansive lot may offer subdivision potential, making this a great opportunity to live in the home while building your dream house. The property does need some updates and is being sold as-is, but with a little vision and work, it could truly shine. Cash or conventional financing only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,796 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 63.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $1,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Goochland

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,323

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.52%
• Current HPI: 196.8499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $219,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-24 Listed $219,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,097 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.