21433 SE Hawthorne Rd · Hawthorne, FL 32640

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1920 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMPLETELY RENOVATED 3/1 IN HAWTHORNE – CITY OF CHAMPIONS | SR-20/US HWY 301 LOCATION Located in the City of Champions, Hawthorne, directly on State Road 20, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with an additional flex room and front porch offers a great opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants. The home has undergone major renovations, delivering a clean, updated look and feel throughout. Significant improvements have been completed, with many key components already updated, repaired, and addressed, providing a strong foundation for the next owner. The property shows well and reflects substantial work, while still allowing room for personalization or future enhancements based on your vision. Whether you're looking to move in, rent, or continue adding value, this home offers the advantage of major updates already completed with additional upside potential.

Key facts

• Strong foundation
• Front porch
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• STRONG FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.3% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#376 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $120k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.29%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $775
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $26,921
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32640

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 300
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,952/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $350	+0% $316	+5% $282	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $254	+0% $316	+5% $378	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $346	base $316	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $119,900 Active 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    COMPLETELY RENOVATED 3/1 IN HAWTHORNE – CITY OF CHAMPIONS | SR-20/US HWY 301 LOCATION Located in the City of Champions, Hawthorne, directly on State Road 20, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with an additional flex room and front porch offers a great opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants. The home has undergone major renovations, delivering a clean, updated look and feel throughout. Significant improvements have been completed, with many key components already updated, repaired, and addressed, providing a strong foundation for the next owner. The property shows well and reflects substantial work, while still allowing room for personalization or future enhancements based on your vision. Whether you're looking to move in, rent, or continue adding value, this home offers the advantage of major updates already completed with additional upside potential.

19. 2025-11-16
    historical
20. 2025-11-06
    price $104,900
21. 2025-08-25
    price $109,900
22. 2025-07-10
    price $110,000
23. 2025-05-16
    price $135,000
24. 2025-05-16
    status Active
25. 2025-05-15
    historical
26. 2025-03-03
    price $144,999
27. 2025-02-21
    price $149,999
28. 2025-02-07
    price $159,999
29. 2025-01-30
    price $169,999
30. 2025-01-18
    price $174,999
31. 2025-01-07
    price $179,999
32. 2024-11-15
    listed $185,000 Active
33. 2024-01-22
    soldstatus $54,293 Closed
34. 2023-12-26
    status Pending
35. 2023-12-12
    price $55,990
36. 2023-11-30
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,952 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,952 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,952
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $3,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawthorne, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,780

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.68%
• Current HPI: 278.0079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+84.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $144,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $159,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $169,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $174,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $179,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-15 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Sold (MLS) $54,293 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $55,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,952 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.