415 Lakeview Unit B1 · Martha Lake, WA 98087

$184,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1987 $175/sqft · 112% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Make yours this no age restriction home with 3 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms + 1 Bonus room, close to Martha Lake. Enjoy a really quiet small town feel while only being minutes from services, I-5 and I-405. Included 2 Sheds for extra storage.

Key facts

• Close to martha lake
• Extra storage
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• CLOSE TO MARTHA LAKE
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.0% in Martha Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in WA, #775 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living F.
• Edmonds School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #53 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $185k implies a 873% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $182,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.92%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,991
• List price: $184,950
• Delta: 94.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Lakeview Rd Unit C1	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (-10%)	13mo	$205,000	$216	72
415 Lake View Rd Unit E20	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	938 (-11%)	6mo	$65,000	$69	67
415 Lakeview Rd Unit E-4	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-12%)	13mo	$125,000	$135	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,010
• Equity at exit: $27,577

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $42,940
• Equity at exit: $15,991

Cash invested: $51,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98087

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $184,950

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $749	-5% $696	+0% $644	+5% $592	+10% $539
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $554	+0% $644	+5% $733	+10% $823
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $691	base $644	+0.5pp $596	+1.0pp $547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,238
• Closing costs: $5,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15319 Ash Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.5	1184	$2,695	$2.28	0d	1	0.57mi
14615 Madison Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1288	$1,899	$1.47	6d	1	0.71mi
14402 Madison Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	44d	1	0.75mi
15631 Ash Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$2,213	$2.81	0d	18	0.79mi
1717 153rd St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	1.5	1372	$3,100	$2.26	44d	1	0.80mi
15706 Ash Way Unit 1289576P Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	893	$4,860	$5.44	3d	1	0.81mi
15704 Ash Way Unit 1256072P Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	893	$4,850	$5.43	3d	1	0.83mi
16619 Larch Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,329	$2.32	0d	12	0.84mi
16520 North Rd Bothell, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,185	$2.08	0d	6	0.85mi
225 164th St SE Unit 102 Bothell, WA	2.0	2.0	818	$1,949	$2.38	44d	1	0.89mi
16626 6th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,044	$2.26	0d	8	0.89mi
16605 6th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,888	$1.98	3d	9	0.89mi
16720 6th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	826	$2,081	$2.52	3d	10	0.96mi
16720 North Rd Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,032	$2.19	0d	2	0.96mi
14701 Main St Mill Creek, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$2,570	$2.57	0d	14	1.01mi
16817 Larch Way Unit C106 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,999	$2.00	44d	1	1.02mi
16116 Ash Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,367	$2.37	0d	9	1.06mi
14420 N Creek Dr Mill Creek, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,712	$2.43	0d	23	1.09mi
15520 Mill Creek Blvd Mill Creek, WA	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,432	$2.18	0d	8	1.11mi
1300 156th St SE Mill Creek, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,195	$2.39	6d	3	1.16mi
1324 Mill Creek Blvd Mill Creek, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,663	$3.41	0d	29	1.20mi
16101 Bothell Everett Hwy Unit E207 Mill Creek, WA	3.0	2.0	1077	$2,600	$2.41	6d	1	1.22mi
16605 Ash Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$3,125	$3.89	0d	73	1.31mi
13004 Meridian Ave S Everett, WA	1.0	1.0	816	$1,642	$2.01	0d	1	1.36mi
1110 164th St SE Mill Creek, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	773	$2,067	$2.67	0d	7	1.42mi
12906 8th Ave W Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	841	$1,675	$1.99	6d	1	1.46mi
13510 N Creek Dr Mill Creek, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,642	$1.61	4d	1	1.47mi
921 130th St SW Unit A101 Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	844	$1,600	$1.90	0d	1	1.48mi
15433 Country Club Dr Unit A204 Mill Creek, WA	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,850	$2.47	19d	1	1.48mi
15433 Country Club Dr Unit A204 Mill Creek, WA	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,700	$2.34	6d	1	1.48mi
1007 130th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$1,800	$2.26	0d	10	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $184,950 Active
3. 2012-12-30
   historical
4. 2012-12-28
   soldstatus $19,000 Sold
5. 2012-10-31
   status Active
6. 2012-09-29
   historical Expired
7. 2012-08-08
   price $22,800
8. 2012-05-12
   price $25,500
9. 2012-04-10
   price $28,000
10. 2012-04-06
    price $29,500
11. 2012-03-11
    listed $32,500 Active
12. 2008-06-20
    soldstatus $30,000
13. 2008-06-10
    historical
14. 2008-02-19
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$52/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,360
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$5,380
• Taxable income: $4,985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $6,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmonds School District
• NCES district ID: 5302400
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $67,451
• Composite: 53.94/100
• National rank: #3026
• State rank: #53 of 291 in WA

Livability — Martha Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #775

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Martha Lake, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,796
• Household income: $106,693
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2303.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Asian 20% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.54%
• Current HPI: 320.6888
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+478.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $184,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-30 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-28 Sold (MLS) $19,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-31 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-08 Price Changed $22,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-12 Price Changed $25,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-10 Price Changed $28,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-06 Price Changed $29,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-11 Listed $32,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-20 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-10 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-19 Listed $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,183 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.