27 Hickory Hills Dr · Hickory Hills, PA 18661

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $173k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Cozy home is in a gated community with amenities and this house is centrally located to all . Home is being sold as is. Theirs is a small laundry room and a crawl space below . This home has many possibilities if the right owner purchases it and gives it a little tlc. You to can have many great years in the Hickory Hills Community. If you have kids the school bus stop is just steps away along with the community playground and pool. The community also has a basketball court, lake and pavilion. Cash offers preferred.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pavilion
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• LAKE
• PAVILION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,624 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $150k implies a 598% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,608
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Hickory Hills Drive Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+5%)	7mo	$186,500	$179	77
26 Deer Cross Rd	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+7%)	18mo	$115,000	$108	70
68 Holiday Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	905 (-9%)	1mo	$235,000	$260	57
38 Vacation Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	960 (-3%)	15mo	$147,000	$153	51
68 Holiday Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	896 (-10%)	11mo	$210,000	$234	47
43 Holiday Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+9%)	22mo	$169,000	$156	46
1219 Woodhaven Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+6%)	12mo	$120,000	$114	45
78 Sunshine Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+9%)	12mo	$187,500	$174	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $87,127
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $252,334
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18661

• Home prices YoY: 15.0%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,061/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $128	+0% $85	+5% $43	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $30	+0% $85	+5% $140	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $123	base $85	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Lee Rd White Haven, PA	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2026-02-11
    price $153,000
17. 2022-04-18
    price $54,500
18. 2012-03-22
    listed $54,500
19. 2011-01-10
    soldstatus $21,500
20. 2010-12-07
    listed $24,900
21. 2001-06-25
    listed $92,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,061 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,216 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$154/yr (+$13/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,061
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $1,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazleton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 20.44/100
• National rank: #8582
• State rank: #476 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hickory Hills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1624
• US rank: #22283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hickory Hills, PA
• Population (ZIP): 5,541

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.68%
• Current HPI: 296.5596
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+62.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $150,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $153,000 LCAR
• 2022-04-18 Price Changed $54,500 GLVRMLS
• 2012-03-22 Listed $54,500 PMAR
• 2011-01-10 Sold (MLS) $21,500 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2010-12-07 Listed $24,900 PMAR
• 2001-06-25 Listed $92,500 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,061 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.