27 Running Water Trl · High Rolls, NM 88317

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled among the towering pines, firs, and oaks, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath mountain retreat offers the perfect opportunity to create your own cozy getaway. With approximately 850 sq. ft. of living space situated on a spacious 1/3-acre lot, this home is full of character and just waiting for someone to bring it new life with personal touches and updates. Enjoy the cool mountain air from two uncovered decks and two private balconies, perfect for morning coffee, relaxing afternoons, or taking in the peaceful forest surroundings. Conveniently located just 6 miles from Cloudcroft and approximately 10 miles from Alamogordo, you’ll enjoy the tranquility of mountain living while still

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Piney Woods Estates; Lot about 0.3 acre; Zoned single family with restrictive covenants

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Site-built home; 2 stories
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Window coverings; Balcony
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#12 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,235
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,411
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88317

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $316	+0% $259	+5% $202	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $189	+0% $259	+5% $329	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $301	base $259	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $165,000 Active 1100-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $2,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming mountain retreat requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Focus on exterior siding, paint, flooring, and updating bathrooms and kitchen.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major exterior paint — Peeling paint
• Major flooring — Worn wooden deck
• Major interior paint — Worn paint on interior walls
• Moderate bathrooms — Small, outdated bathrooms
• Moderate kitchen — Small, outdated kitchen

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Update bathrooms — Modern bathrooms increase both resale and rental value
• Both Update kitchen — Modern kitchen enhances both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn wooden deck	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Worn paint on interior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Small, outdated bathrooms	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen · Small, outdated kitchen	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$66,000–230,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Update bathrooms — Modern bathrooms increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Update kitchen — Modern kitchen enhances both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — High Rolls

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #6140

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,633

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 21% Iranian 18% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 209.5308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $165,000 OCAOR