1138 Misty Meadow Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$379,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,214 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2015 8,407 sqft lot $118/sqft · 8% below area Est $411k · 8% under $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Grand home just a blocks from Community pool & parks. Mature landscaping invites in to be greeted by the formal living & Study. Open concept living, kitchen & eat in breakfast nook. Kitchen boast granite counter tops, island, gas cook top, walk-in pantry & enough counter space for an avid cook. First floor secondary bedroom or guest suite downstairs. Escape to the owners suite with room for sitting area, en-suite bath and walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms & bath are accented by the large game room perfect for family entertainment. Enjoy some game time fun in the media room. All this with a fantastic back yard & shed for additional storage!

Key facts

• Oversized gameroom
• Community pool
• Dedicated media room

Tags

• OVERSIZED GAMEROOM
• DEDICATED MEDIA ROOM
• JACK-AND-JILL BATH
• UPSTAIRS ENTERTAINMENT AREA
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts a variety of financing options including Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA, and Texas Vet loans; Possession negotiable; Subdivision: Fox Hollow Ph 1
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee of $420; HOA covers full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with side-facing garage door and opener; 2 covered parking spaces (carport spaces listed as 0)
• Utilities: City water and city sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Built in 2015; Brick and stone veneer exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Home theater included
• Construction: Brick and stone veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2015
• Exterior features: Covered patio and covered porch(es); Large backyard with grass and sprinkler system; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops; Kitchen island; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, separate shower and sitting area; Several bedrooms with walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan with vaulted and cathedral ceilings; Decorative lighting; Kitchen island and pantry; Granite counters and natural stone/granite surfaces; Flat screen wiring and wired for data; Cable and high-speed internet available; Bay windows and window coverings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer and electric dryer hookups; Utility room with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-790 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (36.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,437 (36.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.93%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,330
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: -7.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1118 Ranger Rd	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,301 (+3%)	3mo	$425,000	$129	76
225 Redford Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,187 (-1%)	9mo	$494,460	$155	74
1233 Altuda Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,137 (-2%)	12mo	$499,900	$159	63
221 Redford Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,027 (-6%)	12mo	$423,086	$140	62
165 Katherine Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,274 (+2%)	5mo	$498,500	$152	58
10176 Country View Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,328 (+4%)	1mo	$600,000	$180	58
1261 Altuda Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,003 (-7%)	10mo	$459,900	$153	54
424 Anderson Ln	0.51mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,340 (+4%)	3mo	$599,000	$179	54
1328 Lone Hill Ln	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,475 (+8%)	7mo	$415,000	$119	48
1021 Springtown St	0.29mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,638 (+13%)	11mo	$448,350	$123	44
1113 Seguin Rd	0.36mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,752 (-14%)	9mo	$276,540	$100	40
321 Westlake	0.39mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,683 (+15%)	9mo	$495,000	$134	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-115,768
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-181,621
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$770 /mo · $9,242/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,735

Max offer price $239,437

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-575	-5% $-683	+0% $-790	+5% $-897	+10% $-1,005
Rent	-10% $-1,006	-5% $-898	+0% $-790	+5% $-682	+10% $-574
Rate	-1.0pp $-599	-0.5pp $-694	base $-790	+0.5pp $-888	+1.0pp $-988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1021 Ellis Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3155	$2,995	$0.95	44d	1	0.30mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	45d	1	0.72mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	8d	1	0.90mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	22d	1	0.96mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	44d	1	1.19mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,395	$0.82	44d	1	1.29mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2926	$2,725	$0.93	13d	1	1.29mi
1282 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,995	$1.28	25d	1	1.44mi
1246 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,995	$1.28	16d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $379,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,000 Active Option Contract 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active Option Contract 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active Option Contract 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active Option Contract 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $379,000 Active Option Contract 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    listed $379,000 Active 1996-char remark
14. 2020-07-27
    soldstatus
15. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus Sold 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Grand home just a blocks from Community pool & parks. Mature landscaping invites in to be greeted by the formal living & Study. Open concept living, kitchen & eat in breakfast nook. Kitchen boast granite counter tops, island, gas cook top, walk-in pantry & enough counter space for an avid cook. First floor secondary bedroom or guest suite downstairs. Escape to the owners suite with room for sitting area, en-suite bath and walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms & bath are accented by the large game room perfect for family entertainment. Enjoy some game time fun in the media room. All this with a fantastic back yard & shed for additional storage!

16. 2020-07-21
    status Pending 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Grand home just a blocks from Community pool & parks. Mature landscaping invites in to be greeted by the formal living & Study. Open concept living, kitchen & eat in breakfast nook. Kitchen boast granite counter tops, island, gas cook top, walk-in pantry & enough counter space for an avid cook. First floor secondary bedroom or guest suite downstairs. Escape to the owners suite with room for sitting area, en-suite bath and walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms & bath are accented by the large game room perfect for family entertainment. Enjoy some game time fun in the media room. All this with a fantastic back yard & shed for additional storage!

17. 2020-07-09
    listed Active Option Contract 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Grand home just a blocks from Community pool & parks. Mature landscaping invites in to be greeted by the formal living & Study. Open concept living, kitchen & eat in breakfast nook. Kitchen boast granite counter tops, island, gas cook top, walk-in pantry & enough counter space for an avid cook. First floor secondary bedroom or guest suite downstairs. Escape to the owners suite with room for sitting area, en-suite bath and walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms & bath are accented by the large game room perfect for family entertainment. Enjoy some game time fun in the media room. All this with a fantastic back yard & shed for additional storage!

18. 2020-07-08
    listed $324,900 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Grand home just a blocks from Community pool & parks. Mature landscaping invites in to be greeted by the formal living & Study. Open concept living, kitchen & eat in breakfast nook. Kitchen boast granite counter tops, island, gas cook top, walk-in pantry & enough counter space for an avid cook. First floor secondary bedroom or guest suite downstairs. Escape to the owners suite with room for sitting area, en-suite bath and walk-in closets. Secondary bedrooms & bath are accented by the large game room perfect for family entertainment. Enjoy some game time fun in the media room. All this with a fantastic back yard & shed for additional storage!

19. 2016-03-10
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Awesome new Sumeer Home ready for quick close. Fantastic floorplan for large family. Includes great kitchen, large family, gameroom and media room. Kitchen filled with beautiful cabinets and a walk in pantry. Show and sell. Make your clients happy that you found this one.

20. 2016-02-14
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Awesome new Sumeer Home ready for quick close. Fantastic floorplan for large family. Includes great kitchen, large family, gameroom and media room. Kitchen filled with beautiful cabinets and a walk in pantry. Show and sell. Make your clients happy that you found this one.

21. 2016-01-24
    listed $299,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Awesome new Sumeer Home ready for quick close. Fantastic floorplan for large family. Includes great kitchen, large family, gameroom and media room. Kitchen filled with beautiful cabinets and a walk in pantry. Show and sell. Make your clients happy that you found this one.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,242 · $770/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,242 · $770/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$9,242
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,625
• − Management: −$2,625
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$16,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $379,000 NTREIS
• 2020-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-07-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-07-09 Listed — NTREIS
• 2020-07-08 Listed $324,900 NTREIS
• 2016-03-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-02-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-01-24 Listed $299,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,242 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.