1820 Ridge Rd · Cumming, GA 30041

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1981 0.56 ac lot $222/sqft · 22% below area Est $384k · 22% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to ga 400
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO GA 400

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-139/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 809 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,736 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,142
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -22.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,108
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,762
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30041

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 809
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,322

Max offer price $296,961

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1840 Homeside Dr Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1802	$2,150	$1.19	43d	1	0.18mi
2575 Maple Leaf Ter Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,100	$1.18	24d	1	0.67mi
2630 Maple Park Pl #15 Cumming, GA	3.0	3.0	1571	$2,300	$1.46	24d	1	0.69mi
3200 Rim Cove Dr #134 Cumming, GA	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	43d	1	0.84mi
716 Vallin St Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1864	$2,300	$1.23	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $299,000 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

16. 2026-02-27
    status Back On Market 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

17. 2026-02-19
    historical 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

18. 2026-02-18
    price $315,000 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

19. 2025-12-29
    price $330,000 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

20. 2025-09-23
    price $340,000 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

21. 2025-08-19
    listed $350,000 New 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Location, Location, Close to schools, shopping and Ga. 400!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,751 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,049/yr (+$87/mo · 61.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $1,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth County
• NCES district ID: 1302220
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,763
• Composite: 56.54/100
• National rank: #1151
• State rank: #5 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cumming

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #3797

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Forsyth County · 198,629 people
• City population: 198,629
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 77,664
• Household income: $152,564
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 796.0

Population outlook (Forsyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 294,519 people
• By 2030: 336,546 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 421,220 · +43.0%
• By 2050: 502,754 · +70.7%
• By 2075: 683,179 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 792,174 · +169.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Forsyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.9% · R 66.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.9pp toward D · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.19%
• Current HPI: 272.1758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $315,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $330,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $340,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $350,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · +1696.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.