157 Jay Ct · Golden's Bridge, NY 10518

$575,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1988 799 sqft lot Est $550k · at est. $732/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained townhouse in the highly desirable Meadows community. Ideally located near shopping, restaurants, and schools, this home offers affordable living, excellent amenities, and low taxes within the sought-after Katonah-Lewisboro School District. Situated in one of the most private locations in the development, the home is just a short walk to the community pool and tennis courts. The main level features a modern kitchen renovated in 2022, a spacious living and dining area, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find a generous primary bedroom suite with two oversized closets and a convenient stackable w

Key facts

• Community pool
• Tennis courts
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported from public records
• HOA & community: Association (The Meadows); Monthly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, parking, maintenance (grounds and exterior), snow removal, and trash; Additional monthly assessment fee for painting (approx. $73.26)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (2 total); No carport
• Utilities: Shared septic; Sewer connected; Water available; Cable available; Private trash collection
• Home design: Townhouse (condominium); Two stories; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Clapboard construction
• Exterior features: Clapboard siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (two-story home, entry level 1)
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace in living room (total of 1 fireplace)
• Interior features: Chandelier; Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; His and hers closets; Primary bathroom; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; Full attic; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $555k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $555k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.3% in Golden's Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #32 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Increase Miller Elementary School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 9% FRL); John Jay Middle School (math 58% / reading 79%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 7% FRL); John Jay High School (math 98% / reading 82%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 917 students, 9% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $161k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $402k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $555,407 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $549,929
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Willow Ct	0.11mi	1/1.5	1,451 (0%)	0mo	$550,000	$379	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $203,049
• Equity at exit: $387,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $582,450
• Equity at exit: $725,492

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10518

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,427/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$732
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,166
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,303

Max offer price $575,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $361	+0% $198	+5% $36	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-21	+0% $198	+5% $418	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $345	base $198	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $732 · $8,784/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $575,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $575,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $575,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $575,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $575,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $575,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,072 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,645/yr (+$304/mo · 150.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$2,427
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,332
• − Management: −$5,332
• − HOA: −$8,784
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,689
• After-tax cash flow: $4,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616080
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $140,994
• Composite: 75.09/100
• National rank: #142
• State rank: #32 of 590 in NY

Livability — Golden's Bridge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,040
• Population (ZIP): 789

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Current HPI: 129.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $402,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,427 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.