Morgan Plan · Baytown, TX 77521

$262,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,709 sqft · SingleFamily · 689 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Whether you're just starting or need space for a growing family, the one-story Morgan can be configured to fit your needs perfectly. This home offers open living at its best, with a bright, airy family room that features a dining area and kitchen island. This plan offers four bedrooms, including a generous owner's retreat.

Key facts

• Owner's retreat
• Open living space
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• OWNER'S RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $262,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,771.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Baytown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 972 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 689 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $205,834 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 689 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,771
• List price: $262,990
• Delta: -0.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9010 Bay Lodge Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,682 (-2%)	3mo	$264,210	$157	92
6307 Waterlily Haven Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,709 (0%)	1mo	$264,990	$155	89
9011 Bay Lodge Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-12%)	2mo	$249,990	$167	76
9010 Gull Canyon Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,915 (+12%)	1mo	$343,043	$179	70
5702 Goosander Land Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,635 (-4%)	5mo	$303,990	$186	69
9218 Burch Eagle Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-3%)	3mo	$268,990	$162	69
9219 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-3%)	4mo	$268,990	$162	68
9018 Bay Lodge Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,949 (+14%)	3mo	$302,150	$155	66
9034 Cedar Crescent Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,949 (+14%)	1mo	$297,150	$152	66
9239 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-14%)	3mo	$259,990	$178	58
9223 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-14%)	4mo	$259,990	$178	57
9311 Long Fin Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-6%)	5mo	$280,990	$175	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-58,947
• Equity at exit: $39,478

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-80,251
• Equity at exit: $22,893

Cash invested: $74,136 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 95 active · 91 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $267,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 972
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,972/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,316

Max offer price $235,298

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-112	+0% $-204	+5% $-295	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-285	+0% $-204	+5% $-122	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-136	base $-204	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,193
• Closing costs: $7,943
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,045	$1.23	9d	1	0.08mi
5818 Starling Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2039	$2,295	$1.13	5d	1	0.18mi
5631 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1999	$2,126	$1.06	51d	1	0.84mi
5202 El Tigre Ln Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,105	$1.16	3d	1	0.87mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	113d	1	0.90mi
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,050	$1.35	46d	1	0.94mi
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	139d	1	1.01mi
5446 Aloe Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2161	$2,150	$0.99	7d	1	1.02mi
8002 Ginger Park Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,065	$1.06	18d	1	1.23mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	100d	1	1.24mi
8317 Black Pool St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,400	$1.08	10d	1	1.28mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,973	$1.28	67d	1	1.37mi
4818 Bentonite Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$1,930	$1.06	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $262,990 Active 689 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $262,990 Active 688 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $262,990 Active 687 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $262,990 Active 686 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $262,990 Active 685 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $262,990 Active 684 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $262,990 Active 683 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $262,990 Active 682 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $262,990 Active 681 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 680 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 679 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $262,990 Active 678 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 677 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 671 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $262,990 Active 670 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 668 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $262,990 Active 666 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 665 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 664 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 663 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 662 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $262,990 Active 660 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 659 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 658 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 657 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 656 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $262,990 Active 655 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $262,990 Active 654 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 653 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $262,990 Active 652 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 651 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 650 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 649 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 648 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $262,990 Active 647 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 646 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 645 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 644 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $262,990 Active 643 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 641 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 640 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $262,990 Active 639 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 638 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $262,990 Active 635 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 633 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 632 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $262,990 Active 630 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 628 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 627 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 626 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,831
• − Property taxes: −$3,972
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$7,702
• Taxable loss: −$7,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,699
• After-tax cash flow: $-745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a tidy front yard. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and market value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and improve the home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrade appliances — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle Highlands J H F TX #595/1,662 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $262,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-03-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $321,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Listed $319,990 Zillow