4813 Bonnie Rd · Kettering, OH 45440

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1960 9,945 sqft lot $187/sqft · 5% below area Est $279k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a wonderfully well kept neighborhood in Kettering, this quaint ranch is ready for you to add your personal style. Walking through the charming front door, you immediately feel the light spread through the living and dining areas from the prominent front window and rear patio doors. With newer LVP flooring throughout, the living room transitions into the main eating area, and continues into the family room, where you discover a fireplace extending the length of the back wall, complimented by a wooden mantle. Recessed lighting spans the entirety of the main living spaces, right into the kitchen. With ample, rich cabinets and contrasting backsplash, this kitchen is the center of the home. You have the ability to greet your guests walking through the front door, while also turning the corner to visit with your dinner party. Traversing the hallway you will find two sizable guest bedrooms and a full bathroom. At the end of the hallway sits the primary bedroom, with a full bathroom recently updated with new tile and upgraded shower. Out back, envision relaxing in the shade of the covered patio, or sunbathing on the additional wood deck, all while taking in the possibilities of the large mostly fenced yard. Mere minutes from a nature preserve, restaurants and stores, this property has everything you could ever want!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Updated kitchen
• Stone fireplace

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STONE FIREPLACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE COVERED REAR PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Public water; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick exterior; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Residential zoning; Lot dimensions approximately 114 x 87 x 114 x 88

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (Main) — 13 x 9
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (Main) — 11 x 11; Bedroom (Main) — 11 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Double pane vinyl windows; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (Main) — 5 x 3; Utility room (Main) — 7 x 3; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#61 in OH, #922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Fairmont High School (math 49% / reading 75%, grade B-, #202 of 781 statewide, top 29%, 2,486 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,071 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,402
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -5.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4813 Bonnie Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,419 (0%)	0mo	$277,000	$195	100
2900 Swigert Rd	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,506 (+6%)	5mo	$275,000	$183	71
3190 Marigold Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+10%)	8mo	$260,000	$167	68
2579 Walford Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+8%)	6mo	$330,000	$216	63
4464 Woodner Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+5%)	6mo	$285,000	$192	62
4341 Wallington Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+0%)	9mo	$270,000	$190	62
2546 Marscott Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$178	57
4533 Drayton Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+10%)	7mo	$300,000	$193	54
4344 Timberwilde Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+14%)	5mo	$321,120	$198	51
5201 Wilmington Pike	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+9%)	4mo	$174,000	$112	48
4424 Appleton Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+14%)	10mo	$265,000	$165	46
2378 E Rahn Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-11%)	10mo	$325,000	$257	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,907
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-34,658
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45440

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,293/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $248,119

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-21	+0% $-96	+5% $-171	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-184	+0% $-96	+5% $-7	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-28	base $-96	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4838 Wilmington Pike Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,650	$1.81	25d	1	0.16mi
4516 Drayton Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,550	$1.77	13d	1	0.43mi
4360 Wallington Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.60mi
4427 Wilmington Pike Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	870	$1,395	$1.60	4d	17	0.73mi
515 Kilkenny Ct Unit NA Sugarcreek Township, OH	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,545	$1.70	16d	1	0.84mi
3049 E Stroop Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,300	$1.60	4d	1	0.95mi
340 Clover Ln Beavercreek, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,075	$1.95	4d	19	1.02mi
5685 Coach Dr E Apt E Kettering, OH	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,375	$1.20	45d	1	1.31mi
4341 Frontenac Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1814	$2,450	$1.35	4d	1	1.36mi
4309 Chantel Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.5	1530	$1,400	$0.92	45d	1	1.36mi
3970 Parliament Pl Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	774	$1,040	$1.34	4d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1190-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $265,000 Active 1190-char remark
3. 2023-11-22
   soldstatus $242,000
4. 2023-11-08
   soldstatus $242,000 Closed 1340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1340 chars)

   Nestled in a wonderfully well kept neighborhood in Kettering, this quaint ranch is ready for you to add your personal style. Walking through the charming front door, you immediately feel the light spread through the living and dining areas from the prominent front window and rear patio doors. With newer LVP flooring throughout, the living room transitions into the main eating area, and continues into the family room, where you discover a fireplace extending the length of the back wall, complimented by a wooden mantle. Recessed lighting spans the entirety of the main living spaces, right into the kitchen. With ample, rich cabinets and contrasting backsplash, this kitchen is the center of the home. You have the ability to greet your guests walking through the front door, while also turning the corner to visit with your dinner party. Traversing the hallway you will find two sizable guest bedrooms and a full bathroom. At the end of the hallway sits the primary bedroom, with a full bathroom recently updated with new tile and upgraded shower. Out back, envision relaxing in the shade of the covered patio, or sunbathing on the additional wood deck, all while taking in the possibilities of the large mostly fenced yard. Mere minutes from a nature preserve, restaurants and stores, this property has everything you could ever want!

5. 2023-11-08
   soldstatus $242,000 Sold 1340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1340 chars)

   Nestled in a wonderfully well kept neighborhood in Kettering, this quaint ranch is ready for you to add your personal style. Walking through the charming front door, you immediately feel the light spread through the living and dining areas from the prominent front window and rear patio doors. With newer LVP flooring throughout, the living room transitions into the main eating area, and continues into the family room, where you discover a fireplace extending the length of the back wall, complimented by a wooden mantle. Recessed lighting spans the entirety of the main living spaces, right into the kitchen. With ample, rich cabinets and contrasting backsplash, this kitchen is the center of the home. You have the ability to greet your guests walking through the front door, while also turning the corner to visit with your dinner party. Traversing the hallway you will find two sizable guest bedrooms and a full bathroom. At the end of the hallway sits the primary bedroom, with a full bathroom recently updated with new tile and upgraded shower. Out back, envision relaxing in the shade of the covered patio, or sunbathing on the additional wood deck, all while taking in the possibilities of the large mostly fenced yard. Mere minutes from a nature preserve, restaurants and stores, this property has everything you could ever want!

6. 2023-10-09
   historical Active/Pending 1340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1340 chars)

   Nestled in a wonderfully well kept neighborhood in Kettering, this quaint ranch is ready for you to add your personal style. Walking through the charming front door, you immediately feel the light spread through the living and dining areas from the prominent front window and rear patio doors. With newer LVP flooring throughout, the living room transitions into the main eating area, and continues into the family room, where you discover a fireplace extending the length of the back wall, complimented by a wooden mantle. Recessed lighting spans the entirety of the main living spaces, right into the kitchen. With ample, rich cabinets and contrasting backsplash, this kitchen is the center of the home. You have the ability to greet your guests walking through the front door, while also turning the corner to visit with your dinner party. Traversing the hallway you will find two sizable guest bedrooms and a full bathroom. At the end of the hallway sits the primary bedroom, with a full bathroom recently updated with new tile and upgraded shower. Out back, envision relaxing in the shade of the covered patio, or sunbathing on the additional wood deck, all while taking in the possibilities of the large mostly fenced yard. Mere minutes from a nature preserve, restaurants and stores, this property has everything you could ever want!

7. 2023-10-06
   listed $239,900 Active 1340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1340 chars)

   Nestled in a wonderfully well kept neighborhood in Kettering, this quaint ranch is ready for you to add your personal style. Walking through the charming front door, you immediately feel the light spread through the living and dining areas from the prominent front window and rear patio doors. With newer LVP flooring throughout, the living room transitions into the main eating area, and continues into the family room, where you discover a fireplace extending the length of the back wall, complimented by a wooden mantle. Recessed lighting spans the entirety of the main living spaces, right into the kitchen. With ample, rich cabinets and contrasting backsplash, this kitchen is the center of the home. You have the ability to greet your guests walking through the front door, while also turning the corner to visit with your dinner party. Traversing the hallway you will find two sizable guest bedrooms and a full bathroom. At the end of the hallway sits the primary bedroom, with a full bathroom recently updated with new tile and upgraded shower. Out back, envision relaxing in the shade of the covered patio, or sunbathing on the additional wood deck, all while taking in the possibilities of the large mostly fenced yard. Mere minutes from a nature preserve, restaurants and stores, this property has everything you could ever want!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,293 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,293 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,293
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,364
• After-tax cash flow: $218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettering City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904418
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 51.89/100
• National rank: #1653
• State rank: #277 of 656 in OH

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #922

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, OH
• County: Greene County · 132,120 people
• City population: 73,116
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 22,358
• Household income: $82,383
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 626.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.53%
• Current HPI: 217.1026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+15.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $277,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $265,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-08 Sold (MLS) $242,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-11-08 Sold (MLS) $242,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-10-09 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2023-10-06 Listed $239,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,293 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.