431 Gray Ave S · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 2022 0.26 ac lot Est $330k · 9% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new construction!! Corner Lot!! Estimated completion July 2022 * * * Move in ready, laminate vinyl planks throughout, stainless steel appliances, 4-bedroom home.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Generous yard
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Faces west; Zoned RS-1
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built with a concrete/block foundation
• Exterior features: Manual shutters; Smoke detector(s); Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 90 x 125 x 90 x 125; East exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Double-hung windows; Shower only with separate shower; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2476 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,344 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,593
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
938 Grant Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,575 (-0%)	5mo	$307,900	$195	73
380 Mcarthur Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (+2%)	2mo	$355,000	$221	70
510 Redwood Ave S	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+9%)	11mo	$340,000	$198	62
507 Kilarney Ave S	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+4%)	22mo	$370,000	$226	58
417 Long Ave S	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+2%)	12mo	$450,000	$281	57
853 Frederick Reid St E	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (+3%)	9mo	$339,900	$209	56
919 Green St E	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,703 (+8%)	23mo	$398,900	$234	54
851 Alexander Mclellan St E	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,710 (+8%)	23mo	$346,500	$203	43
555 Mcarthur Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (-11%)	15mo	$265,000	$189	41
558 Redwood Ave S	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,811 (+15%)	9mo	$375,000	$207	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $132,942
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $399,338
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2476
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $245,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-276	+0% $-380	+5% $-484	+10% $-587
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-465	+0% $-380	+5% $-295	+10% $-211
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-304	base $-380	+0.5pp $-458	+1.0pp $-537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
940 Sterling St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,750	$1.26	5d	1	0.15mi
970 Lakeside Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,800	$1.36	21d	1	0.23mi
947 Grant Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,145	$1.30	25d	1	0.37mi
459 Lockport Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	0.39mi
382 McArthur Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,200	$2.09	25d	1	0.41mi
538 Flamingo Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,791	$1.41	5d	1	0.45mi
541 Hawthorne Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,921	$1.18	5d	1	0.53mi
1018 Kent St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	18d	1	0.53mi
954 Pilgrim St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,625	$1.30	4d	1	0.55mi
538 Cypress Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,699	$1.61	5d	1	0.55mi
928 Milwaukee Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,990	$1.16	25d	1	0.69mi
442 Genoa Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,750	$1.28	5d	1	0.70mi
886 Milwaukee Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	25d	1	0.77mi
530 Kilgour Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$1,795	$0.81	5d	1	0.77mi
908 Winters St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,200	$1.34	12d	1	0.87mi
455 Bell Blvd Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,600	$1.40	25d	1	0.87mi
825 Carbon St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	0.88mi
573 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,900	$1.56	16d	1	0.88mi
508 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	25d	1	0.88mi
556 Sherwood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,175	$1.37	25d	1	0.91mi
874 Apartment St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	25d	1	0.95mi
604 Thomas Sherwin Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,200	$1.47	5d	1	0.97mi
444 Genoa Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,750	$1.26	23d	1	0.98mi
388 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,780	$1.48	25d	1	1.03mi
350 Limerick Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1199	$1,800	$1.50	5d	1	1.05mi
312 Lenz Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,500	$1.13	25d	1	1.07mi
1144 Essex St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	21d	1	1.08mi
459 Lackey Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,825	$1.00	4d	1	1.08mi
684 Thomas Sherwin Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	5d	1	1.08mi
346 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,495	$1.26	5d	1	1.12mi
346 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,495	$1.26	16d	1	1.12mi
862 Charles Sise St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	1.13mi
333 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,300	$1.17	5d	1	1.13mi
759 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,950	$1.67	5d	1	1.16mi
232 Fowler Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	1.19mi
750 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	5d	1	1.20mi
940 Belmont St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,850	$1.55	25d	1	1.24mi
462 Lampion Ave S Unit Main house Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,600	$1.47	5d	1	1.25mi
708 Godwid Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	23d	1	1.27mi
720 Chavers St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,200	$1.42	25d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $300,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $300,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $305,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    price $305,000
12. 2026-04-02
    price $310,000
13. 2026-03-06
    price $315,000
14. 2026-01-30
    price $320,000
15. 2025-12-03
    listed $325,000 Active
16. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus $311,000 Closed 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Brand new construction!! Corner Lot!! Estimated completion July 2022 * * * Move in ready, laminate vinyl planks throughout, stainless steel appliances, 4-bedroom home.

17. 2022-07-08
    status Pending 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Brand new construction!! Corner Lot!! Estimated completion July 2022 * * * Move in ready, laminate vinyl planks throughout, stainless steel appliances, 4-bedroom home.

18. 2022-07-06
    listed $318,000 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Brand new construction!! Corner Lot!! Estimated completion July 2022 * * * Move in ready, laminate vinyl planks throughout, stainless steel appliances, 4-bedroom home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $305,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $310,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $315,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $320,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $325,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-08-04 Sold (MLS) $311,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-07-08 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-07-06 Listed $318,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+30.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $584 · +122.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.