4945 Shore Line Dr · Polk City, FL 33868

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Manufactured public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1990 7,855 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This is an ALL-AGES community (NOT 55+). * * * Leasing or Owning a Class A motorhome is required to purchase in this community, however, after 1 year of ownership it is not a requirement that you own a Class A motorhome. * * * This beautifully maintained home offers the ideal mix of comfort and convenience, featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, and nearly 1,400 sq. ft. of bright, open living space. STEP INSIDE and you’ll love the thoughtful updates throughout — NEW in 2025 A/C system with all-new ductwork (transferable warranty). Also has energy-efficient dual-pane windows, newer metal roof, newer water heater, water softener, update

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Newer metal roof
• Gated rv community

Tags

• GATED RV COMMUNITY
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• UPDATED BATH
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• SCREENED FLORIDA ROOMS
• 16X12 STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association name listed); Monthly HOA approximately $100.42; Annual association fee approximately $1,205; Association approval required; HOA covers common area taxes, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, private road maintenance, recreational facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, gated entry, recreation facilities and shuffleboard court; golf carts allowed; street lights; deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered RV carport; 3 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Side porch; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Storage shed(s); Finished RV port; Mature landscaping; Private, oversized lot; Asphalt/paved road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Polk City Elementary School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 606 students, 58% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $165k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,420
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,498
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33868

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,031/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $256	+0% $209	+5% $162	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $142	+0% $209	+5% $275	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $251	base $209	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-02-04
   price $165,000
5. 2025-11-18
   price $185,000
6. 2025-10-18
   listed $195,000 Active
7. 2017-06-22
   soldstatus $80,000
8. 1989-12-01
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,031
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $2,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Polk City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #9243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,676

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.52%
• Current HPI: 325.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1078.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,031 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.