2515 Bryce Cv · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1997 4,356 sqft lot Est $189k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This fantastic 3 bed 2 bath is ready for you to move-in. The HVAC was replaced in December 2022. The roof is 14 years old. Enjoy the large backyard and secluded cul-de-sac.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Secluded cul-de-sac
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• SECLUDED CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered carport spaces; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story; Living area measured by appraiser
• Construction: Brick veneer and siding exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a one-level house
• Exterior features: Backyard fenced with wood fencing; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace heating; Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Gas log fireplace in the living room; Rain gutters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($227/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horn Lake Elem (451 students, 99% FRL); Horn Lake Middle School (math 37% / reading 21%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,021 students, 100% FRL); Horn Lake High (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 197 statewide, top 49%, 1,361 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,756 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,336
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Bryce Cv	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+2%)	1mo	$194,000	$162	97
5623 W Avalon Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	10mo	$215,000	$165	67
2835 W Heatherglen Cv	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,161 (-1%)	14mo	$210,000	$181	66
2650 Waverly Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,034 (-12%)	13mo	$175,000	$169	62
2947 Waverly Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+12%)	1mo	$209,000	$158	57
5891 Kentwood Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+9%)	24mo	$199,900	$155	49
2754 Guilford Cv	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,049 (-11%)	24mo	$150,000	$143	44
1892 Rapier Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+9%)	17mo	$205,000	$161	41
5915 Waverly Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+13%)	22mo	$179,000	$134	40
1964 Thomas St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+15%)	19mo	$217,500	$161	32
6295 Greenbriar Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-10%)	15mo	$140,000	$133	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-34,851
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-46,662
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,360/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,534

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2563 Waverly Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,550	$1.37	21d	1	0.06mi
5961 Kentwood Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,535	$1.19	23d	1	0.35mi
2912 Waverly Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,793	$1.31	4d	1	0.43mi
2900 Brachton Cv W Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,225	$1.23	23d	1	0.49mi
2905 Brook Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,195	$1.07	21d	1	0.54mi
2905 Brook Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,195	$1.07	2d	1	0.54mi
5640 Ingleside Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	4d	1	0.55mi
5905 Tulane Rd Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1342	$1,300	$0.97	21d	1	0.56mi
6230 Somerset Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,593	$1.32	3d	1	0.76mi
3305 Laurel Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	23d	1	0.78mi
6360 Greenbriar Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1328	$1,465	$1.10	43d	1	0.82mi
3060 Fairmeadow Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,663	$1.51	2d	1	0.91mi
6545 Hermitage Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,295	$1.08	43d	1	0.94mi
2675 Ridgewood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,195	$1.15	23d	1	0.96mi
2675 Ridgewood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,195	$1.12	21d	1	0.96mi
6475 Forest Glen Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,395	$1.27	43d	1	0.97mi
6165 Forestgate Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1079	$1,400	$1.30	43d	1	1.03mi
2890 Meadowbrook Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,375	$1.17	3d	1	1.06mi
6420 Forestgate Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,573	$1.40	21d	1	1.09mi
2921 Normandy Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,200	$0.96	23d	1	1.12mi
2881 Normandy Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1283	$1,450	$1.13	43d	1	1.16mi
5381 Peppermill Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	43d	1	1.16mi
1800 Joy Cir Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	23d	1	1.18mi
1800 Joy Cir Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	11d	1	1.18mi
1800 Joy Cir Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	43d	1	1.18mi
6420 Cornwall Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,550	$1.30	14d	1	1.25mi
2628 Hillcrest Cir Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,275	$1.01	43d	1	1.26mi
6871 Center St Horn Lake, MS	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	43d	1	1.28mi
3530 Mayfair Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	14d	1	1.30mi
3285 Edenshire Ln Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,573	$1.12	23d	1	1.31mi
6225 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	1.32mi
6290 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	4d	1	1.33mi
6445 Collinwood Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,593	$1.10	2d	1	1.34mi
6585 Fairwood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,553	$1.05	23d	1	1.36mi
6420 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,623	$1.47	21d	1	1.39mi
3780 Southbrook Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	1.39mi
6455 Walnut Grove Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	43d	1	1.40mi
3437 Laurelwood St Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,480	$1.23	11d	1	1.40mi
3560 Lakehurst Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,425	$1.10	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $194,000
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $199,000 Active
4. 2025-11-12
   historical
5. 2025-07-11
   price $199,000
6. 2025-06-17
   price $209,000
7. 2025-05-12
   listed $219,000 Active
8. 2023-10-02
   historical
9. 2023-06-28
   listed $230,000 Active
10. 2022-11-15
    soldstatus
11. 2022-11-11
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2022-09-10
    status Pending
13. 2022-08-28
    listed $201,000 Active
14. 1997-01-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$172/yr (+$14/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,360
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,495
• − Management: −$1,495
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$3,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $194,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $199,000 MLSU
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $209,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-12 Listed $219,000 MLSU
• 2023-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-06-28 Listed $230,000 MLSU
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-09-10 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-08-28 Listed $201,000 MLSU
• 1997-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,360 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.