3156 Dispatch Dr · San Marcos, TX 78130

$224,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Townhouse · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $230k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-238/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 479 students, 74% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,977 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,624
• List price: $224,999
• Delta: -2.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,694
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-62,736
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,095

Max offer price $222,134

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $58	+0% $-20	+5% $-98	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-102	+0% $-20	+5% $62	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $37	base $-20	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
259 Ottawa WAY New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,150	$0.99	0d	1	0.04mi
3188 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,700	$1.15	4d	1	0.04mi
3175 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	0d	1	0.04mi
2452 Creek Rd Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$1,600	$0.82	9d	1	0.04mi
3135 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,690	$1.15	26d	1	0.04mi
3179 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	0d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $224,999 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $224,999 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $224,999 Price Change 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,999 Price Change 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,999 Price Change 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,999 Price Change 75 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,999 Price Change 74 DOM
8. 2026-05-18
   listed $249,999 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

9. 2026-04-18
   price $249,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-03-18
    listed $277,999 New 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$957
• After-tax cash flow: $719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story townhouse is move-in ready with modern design and excellent condition. It offers a spacious layout with a peninsula kitchen, two full bathrooms, and a quiet owner's suite. The property is set for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor updates for increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $249,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $249,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Listed $277,999 LERA