1415 Duncan Ave · Perry, GA 31069

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 0.53 ac lot Est $224k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this enchanting, all-brick classic where Southern charm meets modern living. Situated on a beautifully landscaped, fenced corner lot of over half an acre, this property is your own private oasis right in the heart of town. Inside the Home: Step across the threshold and fall in love with the gorgeous, gleaming hardwood floors that flow throughout. You get the absolute best of both worlds here: timeless architectural character paired with a fully updated kitchen and beautifully modernized bathrooms. It is entirely move-in ready (remodeled in 2025) and waiting for your personal touch. The Great Outdoors: The outdoor space is a true "Perrydise. " The expansive, fenced

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Covered carport
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• FENCED CORNER LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MODERNIZED BATHROOMS
• EXPANSIVE FENCED YARD
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2 covered); 2-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Privacy fencing; Lot about 0.53 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Storage; Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($405/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Perry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tucker Elementary School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 470 students, 84% FRL); Perry Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #60 of 470 statewide, top 13%, 1,070 students, 51% FRL); Perry High School (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,478 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $280k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,752 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,190
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1408 Main St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-2%)	11mo	$223,000	$142	82
1406 Main St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-7%)	5mo	$161,000	$109	79
614 Hillcrest Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+5%)	1mo	$235,000	$140	75
620 Pine Ridge St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-2%)	4mo	$220,000	$141	73
1502 Main St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-9%)	1mo	$199,000	$137	73
700 Hillcrest Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,686 (+6%)	10mo	$332,500	$197	71
630 Pine Ridge St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+8%)	4mo	$245,000	$143	67
103 Water Run Way Way	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+6%)	5mo	$269,900	$161	55
1205 Morningside Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+7%)	5mo	$200,000	$117	55
550 Linden St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,680 (+6%)	14mo	$210,000	$125	53
105 Water Run Way	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+10%)	6mo	$294,339	$168	47
531 Ansley Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-14%)	11mo	$180,000	$132	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-43,363
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-35,623
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31069

• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $561/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,065

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Main St Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,750	$1.40	43d	1	0.22mi
1100 Kenwood Dr Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$3,950	$3.04	43d	1	0.43mi
1100 Kenwood Dr Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$3,950	$3.04	21d	1	0.43mi
1115 Kingston Rd Perry, GA	4.0	3.0	1740	$2,000	$1.15	21d	1	0.46mi
304 Christopher Luke Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,095	$1.18	43d	1	0.49mi
705 Evergreen St Perry, GA	2.0	1.5	1489	$1,400	$0.94	21d	1	0.59mi
526 Ochlahatchee Dr Perry, GA	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,550	$1.19	43d	1	0.62mi
1112 3rd St Unit B Perry, GA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.76mi
1304 Georgia Ave Perry, GA	4.0	2.0	1485	$3,500	$2.36	43d	1	0.82mi
1304 Georgia Ave Perry, GA	4.0	2.0	1485	$3,500	$2.36	21d	1	0.82mi
1108 Washington St Perry, GA	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,600	$1.41	43d	1	0.94mi
1215 Macon Rd Perry, GA	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,700	$0.96	13d	1	0.98mi
1739 Houston Lake Rd Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	2163	$1,895	$0.88	43d	1	1.06mi
1726 Greenwood Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1647	$3,490	$2.12	43d	1	1.19mi
1726 Greenwood Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1647	$3,490	$2.12	21d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $279,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   remarks 689-char remark
4. 2026-06-05
   listed $279,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $561 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,014/yr (+$168/mo · 358.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$561
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $1,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perry, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,953
• Household income: $74,501
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.01%
• Current HPI: 240.9327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+201.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $279,900 CGMLS
• 2012-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $123,300 Public Records
• 2001-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $561 · -35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.