The Lakeway Plan · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$306,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 337 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lakeway is a single-story home that offers 2,041 square feet of living space, a two-car garage, four bedrooms, three bathrooms and a study, in Overlook West. As you enter this home you will find yourself in a foyer that opens to a spare bedroom, bedroom 2, a bathroom and a large study with an extra closet for storage. As you continue through the home you will walk into the spacious dining room, kitchen and open family room that leads to a covered patio. The kitchen features a large kitchen island, quartz countertops, a large pantry and stainless-steel appliances throughout. Just off the dining room is the third and fourth extra bedrooms as well as the third bathroom. At the back of the home, just off the family room, is the main bedroom, bedroom 1. This bedroom features plenty of space and natural lighting, a large bathroom with double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Contact us to find your home in Overlook West!

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Large study
• Foyer

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• FOYER
• LARGE STUDY
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,444 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $137,487
• Equity at exit: $276,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $428,327
• Equity at exit: $596,414

Cash invested: $85,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,605/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,685

Max offer price $239,424

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,748
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	0.14mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	13d	1	0.26mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	0.36mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.40mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	43d	1	0.40mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	43d	1	0.41mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	43d	1	0.45mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.48mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	43d	1	0.62mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	43d	1	0.73mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	13d	2	0.81mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	43d	1	0.94mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	13d	1	1.12mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	13d	1	1.14mi
2915 Tractor Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,995	$1.16	13d	1	1.20mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	1.31mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	43d	1	1.31mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	43d	1	1.33mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.36mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	13d	1	1.40mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.40mi
213 Wildcat St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2811	$2,800	$1.00	13d	1	1.43mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,990 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,990 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,990 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,990 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,990 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $306,990 Active 329 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $306,990 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $306,990 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $306,990 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $306,990 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $306,990 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $306,990 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $306,990 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $306,990 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $306,990 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    The Lakeway is a single-story home that offers 2,041 square feet of living space, a two-car garage, four bedrooms, three bathrooms and a study, in Overlook West. As you enter this home you will find yourself in a foyer that opens to a spare bedroom, bedroom 2, a bathroom and a large study with an extra closet for storage. As you continue through the home you will walk into the spacious dining room, kitchen and open family room that leads to a covered patio. The kitchen features a large kitchen island, quartz countertops, a large pantry and stainless-steel appliances throughout. Just off the dining room is the third and fourth extra bedrooms as well as the third bathroom. At the back of the home, just off the family room, is the main bedroom, bedroom 1. This bedroom features plenty of space and natural lighting, a large bathroom with double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Contact us to find your home in Overlook West!

17. 2025-07-16
    listed $304,990 Active 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    The Lakeway is a single-story home that offers 2,041 square feet of living space, a two-car garage, four bedrooms, three bathrooms and a study, in Overlook West. As you enter this home you will find yourself in a foyer that opens to a spare bedroom, bedroom 2, a bathroom and a large study with an extra closet for storage. As you continue through the home you will walk into the spacious dining room, kitchen and open family room that leads to a covered patio. The kitchen features a large kitchen island, quartz countertops, a large pantry and stainless-steel appliances throughout. Just off the dining room is the third and fourth extra bedrooms as well as the third bathroom. At the back of the home, just off the family room, is the main bedroom, bedroom 1. This bedroom features plenty of space and natural lighting, a large bathroom with double vanity and a large walk-in closet. Contact us to find your home in Overlook West!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,196
• − Property taxes: −$4,605
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$11,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-16 Listed $304,990 Zillow