26501 Red Clover Dr · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$248,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,687 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,018 sqft lot $147/sqft · 10% below area Est $270k · 8% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this delightful Centex home in the Decker Farms Community with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Luxurious vinyl plank flooring graces the first floor, perfect for entertaining in the open layout. The island kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, ample 42" cabinetry, and stunning countertops. All bedrooms are situated upstairs for privacy, separating living and entertaining areas. Outside, the fenced backyard offers ample space for private outdoor living, pets, or gatherings.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Fenced backyard
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,494 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,566
• List price: $248,000
• Delta: -8.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26406 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-3%)	2mo	$268,420	$163	83
26294 Arrowleaf Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-3%)	2mo	$249,910	$152	80
26382 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+5%)	1mo	$239,090	$135	78
26306 Arrowleaf Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+5%)	2mo	$274,755	$155	73
26307 Arrowleaf Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+10%)	0mo	$259,325	$140	71
26295 Arrowleaf Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+10%)	1mo	$269,040	$145	70
26275 Arrowleaf Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+10%)	4mo	$288,270	$156	69
26286 Arrowleaf Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+10%)	2mo	$274,050	$148	69
26410 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	2mo	$256,610	$170	63
26386 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	5mo	$261,870	$173	62
26299 Arrowleaf Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	5mo	$267,310	$177	59
26290 Arrowleaf Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	6mo	$256,610	$170	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,258
• Equity at exit: $36,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-56,445
• Equity at exit: $21,443

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,472/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $219,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-90	+0% $-160	+5% $-230	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-243	+0% $-160	+5% $-76	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-97	base $-160	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26193 Brahman Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,925	$1.60	26d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $248,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $248,000 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome to this delightful Centex home in the Decker Farms Community with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Luxurious vinyl plank flooring graces the first floor, perfect for entertaining in the open layout. The island kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, ample 42" cabinetry, and stunning countertops. All bedrooms are situated upstairs for privacy, separating living and entertaining areas. Outside, the fenced backyard offers ample space for private outdoor living, pets, or gatherings.

17. 2026-03-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome to this delightful Centex home in the Decker Farms Community with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Luxurious vinyl plank flooring graces the first floor, perfect for entertaining in the open layout. The island kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, ample 42" cabinetry, and stunning countertops. All bedrooms are situated upstairs for privacy, separating living and entertaining areas. Outside, the fenced backyard offers ample space for private outdoor living, pets, or gatherings.

18. 2025-10-03
    listed $249,000 Active
19. 2024-11-21
    historical
20. 2024-11-08
    status Active
21. 2024-11-08
    historical
22. 2024-10-28
    listed $240,000 Active
23. 2024-10-28
    historical
24. 2024-10-10
    price $250,000
25. 2024-09-11
    price $260,000
26. 2024-08-15
    price $265,000
27. 2024-06-19
    price $280,000
28. 2024-06-19
    status Active
29. 2024-06-15
    status Pending
30. 2024-06-12
    price $274,000
31. 2024-06-11
    status Option Pending
32. 2024-06-11
    status Active
33. 2024-06-07
    status Option Pending
34. 2024-05-30
    price $282,500
35. 2024-04-24
    price $287,500
36. 2024-04-18
    price $290,000
37. 2024-04-04
    listed $295,000 Active
38. 2024-04-03
    historical
39. 2022-11-17
    soldstatus Sold
40. 2022-07-11
    status Pending
41. 2022-07-08
    price $260,990
42. 2022-06-28
    price $279,990
43. 2022-06-13
    listed $282,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,472 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,538 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$6/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$4,472
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable loss: −$6,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,476
• After-tax cash flow: $-442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Centex home in Decker Farms Community is in good condition with a good curb appeal. It has a good layout and is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Increases resale value and rental appeal.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Increases resale value and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $248,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $274,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $282,500 HARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $287,500 HARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-03 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $260,990 HARMLS
• 2022-06-28 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Listed $282,490 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,472 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.